Chicago Fire vs Charlotte FC: Charlotte FC to win
Chicago Fire sit on a 58% win probability, yet the market undervalues Charlotte FC at just 17.5% implied. Our model puts the Carolinians on a 20.4% chance, carving a clear edge.
| Bookmaker | Chicago Fire | Draw | Charlotte FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 5.05 | 5.35 |
| 888sport | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Bet Victor | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| BetAnything | 1.56 | 4.70 | 5.15 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.56 | 4.70 | 5.15 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.46 | 4.20 | 4.65 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.90 | 5.70 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.90 | 5.70 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| Betsson | 1.55 | 4.70 | 5.40 |
| Betway | 1.50 | 4.75 | 4.75 |
| BoyleSports | 1.50 | 4.50 | 4.75 |
| Casumo | 1.51 | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| Coolbet | 1.55 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| Coral | 1.50 | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| Everygame | 1.50 | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| GTbets | 1.55 | 4.72 | 5.17 |
| Grosvenor | 1.50 | 4.60 | 5.30 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.50 | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| LeoVegas | 1.50 | 4.50 | 4.80 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.55 | 4.70 | 5.50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.45 | 4.40 | 5.10 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.50 | 4.70 | 5.20 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.52 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.55 | 4.70 | 5.40 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.47 | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| Paddy Power | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.52 | 4.87 | 5.16 |
| Sky Bet | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.25 |
| Smarkets | 1.55 | 4.80 | 5.50 |
| Tipico | 1.47 | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.45 | 4.15 | 4.60 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.51 | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.51 | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.45 | 4.40 | 5.10 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.49 | 4.50 | 4.60 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.48 | 4.40 | 4.50 |
Both sides are fighting for league positioning on a humid August night, but the fire‑lighted narrative will be whether the Fire’s recent surge can survive a Charlotte side that thrives on the road.
Jonesy's Verdict
Charlotte’s 20.4% model win probability exceeds the 17.5% implied by the 5.7 odds, delivering a modest but real edge for a side that has won three of the last five head‑to‑head meetings.
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With Chicago Fire averaging 2.0 expected goals and Charlotte FC averaging 1.1, the model gives a 57.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 42.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.1 (Chicago Fire 2.0 + Charlotte FC 1.1) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 59.9% chance against 40.1% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Chicago Fire at 58.2%, the draw at 21.4%, and Charlotte FC at 20.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Chicago Fire
Chicago’s recent run includes three straight wins – 3‑1 at DC United, 2‑0 at CF Montreal, and 2‑1 over Toronto FC – followed by back‑to‑back losses, 2‑3 at Inter Miami and 1‑3 at New York City FC. Those defeats show a pattern of conceding three or more goals, indicating defensive vulnerability that directly benefits Charlotte’s win prospects.
Charlotte FC
Charlotte’s last five games feature a 0‑1 loss to New York City FC, then a 3‑1 thrashing of Toronto FC, a 1‑0 win at New England, a 2‑2 draw with Atlanta United, and a 2‑0 victory away at New York Red Bulls. The three wins, especially the shut‑outs, demonstrate both scoring ability and defensive solidity on the road, supporting their capacity to secure the three points.
Head-to-Head
In the most recent five meetings, Charlotte have won three times – 4‑3 in October 2024, 1‑0 in May 2024, and 2‑0 in October 2023 – giving them a head‑to‑head edge that aligns with the model’s higher win probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 29 Jun 2025 | Chicago Fire 3-2 Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
| 17 May 2025 | Charlotte 1-4 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| 2 Oct 2024 | Charlotte 4-3 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| 16 May 2024 | Chicago Fire 0-1 Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
| 8 Oct 2023 | Chicago Fire 0-2 Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
Odds Comparison
Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.
| Market | Chicago Fire | Draw | Charlotte FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 1.57 | 5.05 | 5.70 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (Nordic Bet) | ||
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 (Nordic Bet) | ||
Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.
Team News
Chicago Fire: A. Franco (Knee Injury), M. Mbokazi (Lower-Body Injury), C. Mueller (Inactive), C. Cupps (International duty)
Charlotte FC: A. John (Upper-Body Injury), N. Berchimas (Injury), A. Saint-Maximin (Inactive), D. Schnegg (Red Card)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
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The statistical picture shows a fire‑breathing offense paired with defensive frailties, while Charlotte’s road form combines efficient scoring with tighter defending – a blend that tilts the odds in their favour despite the market’s skepticism.
Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org