FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes: Over 2.5 goals
FC Cincinnati are expected to score 3.0 goals against San Jose Earthquakes, who have an expected goals tally of 2.3, indicating a high-scoring match. The model suggests a significant edge in the Over 2.5 goals market, with a probability of 89.4% compared to the market odds.
| Bookmaker | FC Cincinnati | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.95 | 4.71 | 3.25 |
| 888sport | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| Bet Victor | 1.90 | 4.00 | 3.12 |
| BetAnything | 1.96 | 4.05 | 3.41 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.96 | 4.05 | 3.41 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.90 | 4.00 | 3.12 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.85 | 3.73 | 3.02 |
| Betfair | 1.99 | 4.50 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 1.99 | 4.50 | 3.30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.95 | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.91 | 4.20 | 3.10 |
| Betsson | 1.90 | 4.25 | 3.45 |
| Betway | 1.91 | 4.00 | 3.10 |
| BoyleSports | 1.80 | 4.00 | 2.88 |
| Casumo | 1.93 | 4.10 | 3.25 |
| Coolbet | 1.95 | 4.30 | 3.25 |
| Coral | 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.10 |
| Everygame | 1.91 | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| GTbets | 2.03 | 4.26 | 3.27 |
| Grosvenor | 1.93 | 4.10 | 3.25 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.10 |
| LeoVegas | 1.91 | 3.95 | 3.10 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.97 | 4.20 | 3.35 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.86 | 3.95 | 3.15 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.93 | 4.05 | 3.25 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.96 | 3.95 | 3.16 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.90 | 4.25 | 3.45 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.88 | 4.00 | 3.15 |
| Paddy Power | 1.91 | 4.20 | 3.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.96 | 4.16 | 3.32 |
| Sky Bet | 1.91 | 4.00 | 3.10 |
| Smarkets | 1.98 | 4.40 | 3.25 |
| Tipico | 1.85 | 4.30 | 3.20 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.84 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.93 | 4.10 | 3.25 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.93 | 4.10 | 3.25 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.86 | 3.95 | 3.15 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.90 | 3.90 | 3.00 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.86 | 3.85 | 2.95 |
FC Cincinnati host San Jose Earthquakes in an MLS fixture that promises to be an exciting encounter. The home team has been in decent form, with a recent record of LDWWL in their last five league games, while San Jose Earthquakes have struggled, managing only one win in their last five outings, with a record of LLWLD.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model suggests a probability of 89.4% for Over 2.5 goals, which is significantly higher than the market odds. This, combined with the expected goals tallies and recent form of both teams, makes Over 2.5 goals the most attractive bet.
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With FC Cincinnati averaging 3.0 expected goals and San Jose Earthquakes averaging 2.3, the model gives a 85.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 14.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 5.3 (FC Cincinnati 3.0 + San Jose Earthquakes 2.3) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 89.4% chance against 10.6% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has FC Cincinnati at 52.8%, the draw at 17.1%, and San Jose Earthquakes at 29.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-2 at 5.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati have a recent record of LDWWL in their last five league games, with a home goals-for average of 3.0 and goals-against average of 2.1. The team has been dealing with injuries to key players, including G. Valenzuela and T. Hadebe.
San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes have struggled in their last five league games, managing only one win, with a record of LLWLD. The team has a decent away goals-for average of 2.3, but has been dealing with injuries to players like N. Adimabua and E. Edwards.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record between the two teams suggests that FC Cincinnati have the upper hand, with a 2-1 record in their last three meetings, including a 6-0 win in 2022 and a 4-2 win in 2024.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 16 Jun 2024 | San Jose Earthquakes 2-4 FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 10 Sep 2022 | FC Cincinnati 6-0 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 5 May 2019 | San Jose Earthquakes 1-0 FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
Odds Comparison
Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.
| Market | FC Cincinnati | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 2.03 | 4.71 | 3.45 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.32 (Betsson) | ||
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.35 (Betsson) | ||
Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.
Team News
FC Cincinnati: G. Valenzuela (Red Card), K. Fletcher (Knee Injury), T. Hadebe (Leg Injury), A. Powell (Leg Injury)
San Jose Earthquakes: N. Adimabua (Lower-Body Injury), E. Edwards (Lower-Body Injury), D. Jones (Achilles Tendon Injury), N. Tsakiris (Groin Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
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Given the expected goals tallies and the recent form of both teams, it is likely that this match will see a significant number of goals. The model match-result probabilities suggest that FC Cincinnati are the most likely to win, but the high expected goals tally for both teams means that the Over 2.5 goals market is the most appealing bet.
Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org