MLS · Regular Season - 18 Sun 2 Aug · 00:30 BST Nu Stadium

Inter Miami CF vs Columbus Crew SC: Over 2.5 goals

Inter Miami CF host Columbus Crew SC with a significant edge in expected goals, boasting 2.7 to the visitors' 1.5. The model suggests a strong probability of over 2.5 goals, with 78.8% likelihood, presenting a compelling betting opportunity.

Jonesy's Take
1
Headline Pick
Over 2.5 goals
Strong · Model edge
2
Both Teams to Score
BTTS — Yes
72.3% model probability
3
Total Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
78.8% model probability
Best Odds — Inter Miami CF vs Columbus Crew SC
Inter Miami CF
1.78
GTbets
Draw
4.84
1xBet
Columbus Crew SC
4.75
LeoVegas (SE)
Bookmaker Inter Miami CF Draw Columbus Crew SC
1xBet 1.70 4.84 4.25
888sport 1.65 4.20 4.00
Bet Victor 1.65 4.20 4.00
BetAnything 1.75 4.10 4.29
BetOnline.ag 1.75 4.10 4.29
Betano (UK) 1.65 4.20 4.00
Betclic (FR) 1.59 3.95 3.88
Betfair 1.73 4.30 4.60
Betfair 1.72 4.30 4.60
Betfair Sportsbook 1.70 4.33 4.00
Betfred (UK) 1.67 4.20 4.00
Betsson 1.70 4.15 4.45
Betway 1.67 4.00 4.33
BoyleSports 1.62 4.20 3.50
Casumo 1.70 3.90 4.60
Coolbet 1.72 4.40 4.20
Coral 1.65 4.00 3.80
Everygame 1.67 3.85 4.40
GTbets 1.78 4.35 4.13
Grosvenor 1.68 3.85 4.60
Ladbrokes 1.65 4.00 3.80
LeoVegas 1.65 4.10 4.00
LeoVegas (SE) 1.73 3.95 4.75
LiveScore Bet 1.62 3.75 4.40
Marathon Bet 1.69 3.95 4.40
MyBookie.ag 1.68 4.20 4.10
Nordic Bet 1.70 4.15 4.45
PMU (FR) 1.64 3.75 4.50
Paddy Power 1.67 4.33 4.00
Pinnacle 1.70 4.03 4.56
Sky Bet 1.67 4.20 3.90
Smarkets 1.72 4.20 4.50
Tipico 1.62 4.20 4.30
Unibet (FR) 1.58 3.90 3.85
Unibet (NL) 1.70 3.90 4.60
Unibet (SE) 1.70 3.90 4.60
Virgin Bet 1.62 3.75 4.40
William Hill 1.65 4.20 4.00
Winamax (DE) 1.64 4.20 3.90
Winamax (FR) 1.62 4.10 3.80
Odds updated 30 Jul, 07:49 UTC · Prices sourced live via The Odds API, subject to change — always check on the bookmaker site 18+ | Gamble responsibly | begambleaware.org

This matchup between Inter Miami CF and Columbus Crew SC is expected to be an entertaining affair, given the attacking prowess of the home side and the recent head-to-head record between the two teams. Inter Miami CF have been in impressive form, winning their last five league games, which includes victories over several strong opponents.

Jonesy's Verdict

LIVE
Inter Miami CF vs Columbus Crew SC
0 - 0
Strong
Over 2.5 goals Strong · Model edge

The pick is justified by the significant difference in expected goals between the two teams, as well as the model's high probability of over 2.5 goals. Inter Miami CF's recent form and scoring record at home further support this selection.

Show the maths
The model's Over 2.5 goals probability is derived from the expected goals of both teams, taking into account their respective scoring rates and defensive records. By comparing the model's probability to the market odds, we can identify a notable edge in favor of over 2.5 goals, with the model suggesting a 78.8% likelihood compared to the implied market probability.
Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score
Both Teams to Score — Yes 72.3% model probability

With Inter Miami CF averaging 2.7 expected goals and Columbus Crew SC averaging 1.5, the model gives a 72.3% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 27.7% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths
BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Inter Miami CF 2.7, Columbus Crew SC 1.5) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 72.3% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 27.7% where at least one side is shut out.
Pick 3 · Total Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 78.8% model probability

Combined expected goals of 4.2 (Inter Miami CF 2.7 + Columbus Crew SC 1.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 78.8% chance against 21.2% for Under.

Show the maths
Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Inter Miami CF 2.7 + Columbus Crew SC 1.5 = 4.2 combined): 78.8% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 21.2% finishing with 2 or fewer.
Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Inter Miami CF at 62.8%, the draw at 17.3%, and Columbus Crew SC at 19.7% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 8.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Inter Miami CF expected goals
2.7
Columbus Crew SC expected goals
1.5
Model BTTS probability
72.3%

Most likely scorelines

12-1
8.2%
23-1
7.4%
32-2
6.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

Inter Miami CF

WWWWW

Inter Miami CF have been in exceptional form, winning their last five league games and boasting a home goals-for average of 2.7. This strong scoring record, combined with their impressive recent results, makes them a formidable opponent for Columbus Crew SC.

Columbus Crew SC

LDWLW

Columbus Crew SC have experienced a mixed run of form, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five league games. Their away goals-for average of 1.5 is also a concern, as they face a strong Inter Miami CF side with a high scoring potential.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record between the two teams is dominated by Inter Miami CF, with the home side winning three of the last five meetings, including a 5-1 victory in their most recent encounter.

DateResultCompetition
31 May 2025Inter Miami 5-1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
19 Apr 2025Columbus Crew 0-1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
2 Oct 2024Columbus Crew 2-3 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
13 Aug 2024Columbus Crew 3-2 Inter MiamiLeagues Cup
19 Jun 2024Inter Miami 2-1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer

Odds Comparison

Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.

MarketInter Miami CFDrawColumbus Crew SC
Match winner1.784.844.75
Over 2.5 goals1.35 (Betsson)
Under 2.5 goals3.15 (Betsson)

Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.

Team News

Inter Miami CF: T. Allende (Knee Injury), D. Ayala (Muscle Injury), M. Falcon (Calf Injury), G. Lujan (Calf Injury)

Columbus Crew SC: W. Abou Ali (Knee Injury), B. Mendez (Lacking Match Fitness), A. Gomes (Thigh Injury), B. Lennon (Groin Injury)

Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.

More From This Week

Given these statistics and the recent form of both teams, it appears that the market underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring match. The model's Over 2.5 goals probability of 78.8% presents a notable edge against the current market odds, making this a prime betting opportunity.

Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org

J
Written by Jonesy
North America Writer, TerraceBet — data-obsessed, opinionated, occasionally right