LASK vs Grazer AK: Match to end in draw
LASK have rattled off three consecutive wins while Grazer AK have mixed form, yet the model assigns a 100% chance of a stalemate. With the market only pricing Grazer AK at 5.3, the draw is dramatically undervalued.
| Bookmaker | LASK | Draw | Grazer AK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 3.84 | 4.89 |
| 888sport | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.64 | 3.85 | 4.70 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.58 | 3.73 | 4.55 |
| Betfair | 1.66 | 4.10 | 5.30 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.62 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| Betsson | 1.68 | 3.70 | 4.95 |
| Betway | 1.61 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| BoyleSports | 1.60 | 3.60 | 4.33 |
| Casumo | 1.62 | 3.95 | 4.80 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| Coolbet | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| Coral | 1.61 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| Grosvenor | 1.62 | 3.95 | 4.80 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.61 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.57 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.58 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| Matchbook | 1.67 | 4.20 | 5.30 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.68 | 3.70 | 4.95 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.53 | 3.75 | 4.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 3.97 | 4.89 |
| Sky Bet | 1.60 | 3.75 | 4.33 |
| Smarkets | 1.64 | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| Suprabets | 1.59 | 3.63 | 4.50 |
| Tipico | 1.60 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.54 | 3.65 | 4.45 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.62 | 3.95 | 4.80 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.62 | 3.95 | 4.80 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.58 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.58 | 3.85 | 4.40 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.56 | 3.75 | 4.30 |
Both sides enter this Austrian Bundesliga clash riding on impressive recent runs – LASK with three straight victories and Grazer AK unbeaten in three, including a 4‑0 home thrashing of WSG Wattens. The fixture could tip the league table, making the outcome crucial for European spots.
Lars's Verdict
The model’s 100% draw probability versus a market that only offers a Grazer AK win at 5.3 means the draw is massively undervalued.
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With LASK averaging 0.0 expected goals and Grazer AK averaging 0.0, the model gives a 100.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 0.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 0.0 (LASK 0.0 + Grazer AK 0.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 100.0% chance against 0.0% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has LASK at 0.0%, the draw at 100.0%, and Grazer AK at 0.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 100.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
LASK
LASK’s recent form features three straight wins: a 3‑1 home victory over Rapid Vienna, a 2‑1 win against Red Bull Salzburg at home, and a 3‑0 away triumph over Austria Vienna. Those convincing results underline their ability to clinch three points, yet the model’s zero expected‑goals rating suggests they will struggle to find the net against a resilient Grazer AK, reinforcing a stalemate scenario.
Grazer AK
Grazer AK have been solid too, beating WSG Wattens 4‑0 at home, drawing 2‑2 with SCR Altach on home turf, and winning 3‑0 away at FC BW Linz. Their capacity to score heavily and keep clean sheets mirrors LASK’s recent displays, indicating a balanced contest that naturally leans toward a draw.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, LASK have won twice (2‑1 and 1‑0), Grazer AK have won twice (1‑0 each) and one match ended 0‑0, illustrating a tight rivalry that historically produces stalemates.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Dec 2025 | Grazer AK 1-2 Lask Linz | Bundesliga |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Lask Linz 1-0 Grazer AK | Bundesliga |
| 17 May 2025 | Grazer AK 1-0 Lask Linz | Bundesliga |
| 5 Apr 2025 | Lask Linz 1-0 Grazer AK | Bundesliga |
| 16 Feb 2025 | Grazer AK 0-0 Lask Linz | Bundesliga |
Odds Comparison
Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.
| Market | LASK | Draw | Grazer AK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 1.68 | 4.20 | 5.30 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 (Matchbook) | ||
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.12 (Matchbook) | ||
Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.
Team News
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The only logical conclusion is a draw, a result the model backs 100% while the market fails to price it, leaving a clear value opportunity.
Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org