Minnesota United FC vs San Diego FC: San Diego FC to win
Minnesota United FC host San Diego FC with the model suggesting a higher likelihood of a San Diego win than the market implies, at 39.1% compared to the market's implied 38.5% for a non-Draw outcome. The home side's expected goals of 0.8 are significantly lower than the visitors' 1.0, suggesting a tough outing for Minnesota United FC.
| Bookmaker | Minnesota United FC | Draw | San Diego FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.02 | 4.30 | 3.31 |
| 888sport | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| Bet Victor | 1.93 | 3.75 | 3.25 |
| BetAnything | 2.02 | 3.90 | 3.35 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.02 | 3.90 | 3.35 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.93 | 3.75 | 3.25 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.86 | 3.53 | 3.13 |
| Betfair | 2.04 | 3.95 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.04 | 4.10 | 3.40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.90 | 3.75 | 3.30 |
| Betsson | 1.98 | 3.70 | 3.55 |
| Betway | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| BoyleSports | 1.87 | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| Casumo | 1.95 | 3.85 | 3.40 |
| Coolbet | 1.95 | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| Coral | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| Everygame | 1.95 | 3.65 | 3.20 |
| GTbets | 1.97 | 3.92 | 3.48 |
| Grosvenor | 1.94 | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| LeoVegas | 1.93 | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.00 | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.88 | 3.65 | 3.25 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.98 | 3.75 | 3.32 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.97 | 3.70 | 3.28 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.98 | 3.70 | 3.55 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.89 | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| Paddy Power | 1.90 | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| Pinnacle | 2.03 | 3.86 | 3.35 |
| Sky Bet | 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.30 |
| Smarkets | 2.02 | 4.00 | 3.35 |
| Tipico | 1.87 | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.95 | 3.85 | 3.40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.95 | 3.85 | 3.40 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.88 | 3.65 | 3.25 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.90 | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.88 | 3.60 | 3.05 |
Sunday's matchup between Minnesota United FC and San Diego FC promises to be a closely contested affair, with the away side looking to capitalize on their recent form. Minnesota United FC have struggled to find consistency, with their last five league games yielding just one win and four defeats or draws.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model's probability of a San Diego FC win at 39.1% presents a compelling case, especially when compared to the market's implied probability. With Minnesota United FC's home goals-for average standing at a lowly 0.8, San Diego FC's chances of emerging victorious appear stronger than the market suggests.
Show the maths
With Minnesota United FC averaging 0.8 expected goals and San Diego FC averaging 1.0, the model gives a 65.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 34.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 1.8 (Minnesota United FC 0.8 + San Diego FC 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 73.1% chance against 26.9% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Minnesota United FC at 28.2%, the draw at 32.6%, and San Diego FC at 39.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 16.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Minnesota United FC
Minnesota United FC's recent form has been underwhelming, with their last five league games resulting in just one win and four defeats or draws. This inconsistency has been reflected in their home goals-for average of 0.8, which will need to improve if they are to challenge San Diego FC.
San Diego FC
San Diego FC's form has been mixed, with two wins, two defeats, and one draw in their last five league games. However, their away goals-for average of 1.0 suggests they are capable of posing a significant threat to Minnesota United FC's defense.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record between the two sides is closely contested, with Minnesota United FC emerging victorious in two of the last four meetings, including a 2-1 win in April 2026.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | San Diego 1-2 Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 25 Nov 2025 | San Diego 1-0 Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 14 Sep 2025 | San Diego 1-3 Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 15 Jun 2025 | Minnesota United FC 2-4 San Diego | Major League Soccer |
Odds Comparison
Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.
| Market | Minnesota United FC | Draw | San Diego FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 2.04 | 4.30 | 3.55 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 (Betsson) | ||
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.48 (Betsson) | ||
Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.
Team News
Minnesota United FC: N. Romero (Lower-Body Injury), N. Triantis (Lower-Body Injury), C. Harvey (Illness), J. Gressel (Toe Injury)
San Diego FC: A. Pellegrino (Lower-Body Injury), P. Sisniega (Back Injury), A. Reyes (Leg Injury), L. Bombino (Red Card)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More From This Week
Given these statistics, it appears that San Diego FC may have a slight upper hand in this encounter. Their recent form, while not consistent, has shown glimpses of their potential, and they will be looking to build on this against a Minnesota United FC side that has struggled to find its footing.
Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org