MLS · Regular Season - 18 Sun 2 Aug · 01:30 BST CITYPARK

St. Louis City SC vs Real Salt Lake: BTTS – Yes

St. Louis City’s 1.9 xG versus Real Salt Lake’s 1.3 xG sets up a high‑scoring clash. Our model puts the BTTS probability at 61.9 % – a clear signal for both sides to find the net.

Jonesy's Take
1
Headline Pick
BTTS – Yes
Strong · High BTTS rate
2
Both Teams to Score
BTTS — Yes
61.9% model probability
3
Total Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
62.0% model probability
Best Odds — St. Louis City SC vs Real Salt Lake
St. Louis City SC
2.21
GTbets
Draw
4.22
1xBet
Real Salt Lake
3.20
Betfair
Bookmaker St. Louis City SC Draw Real Salt Lake
1xBet 2.12 4.22 3.10
888sport 2.10 3.50 3.00
Bet Victor 2.05 3.70 3.00
BetAnything 2.15 3.76 3.13
BetOnline.ag 2.15 3.76 3.13
Betano (UK) 2.05 3.70 3.00
Betclic (FR) 1.98 3.47 2.87
Betfair 2.14 3.95 3.20
Betfair 2.14 3.95 3.20
Betfred (UK) 2.05 3.75 3.00
Betsson 2.12 3.70 3.20
Betway 2.05 3.75 3.10
BoyleSports 2.00 3.60 2.75
Casumo 2.14 3.70 3.10
Coolbet 2.15 3.85 3.10
Coral 2.05 3.50 2.90
Everygame 2.05 3.60 3.05
GTbets 2.21 3.92 3.04
Grosvenor 2.12 3.70 3.05
Ladbrokes 2.05 3.50 2.90
LeoVegas 2.08 3.60 2.95
LeoVegas (SE) 2.18 3.80 3.15
LiveScore Bet 2.04 3.55 2.95
Marathon Bet 2.09 3.72 3.08
MyBookie.ag 2.11 3.65 3.00
Nordic Bet 2.12 3.70 3.20
PMU (FR) 2.06 3.60 3.00
Paddy Power 2.10 3.80 3.00
Pinnacle 2.12 3.76 3.19
Sky Bet 2.10 3.60 3.00
Smarkets 2.12 3.95 3.20
Tipico 2.05 3.50 3.20
Unibet (FR) 1.97 3.45 2.85
Unibet (NL) 2.14 3.70 3.10
Unibet (SE) 2.14 3.70 3.10
Virgin Bet 2.04 3.55 2.95
William Hill 2.10 3.50 3.00
Winamax (DE) 2.05 3.65 2.90
Winamax (FR) 2.00 3.60 2.80
Odds updated 30 Jul, 13:03 UTC · Prices sourced live via The Odds API, subject to change — always check on the bookmaker site 18+ | Gamble responsibly | begambleaware.org

Both clubs have been prolific in the final third, and this encounter could decide the early‑season race for playoff spots. With St. Louis unbeaten in four of their last five league games, the home side is keen to cement its early dominance.

Jonesy's Verdict

LIVE
St. Louis City SC vs Real Salt Lake
0 - 0
Strong
BTTS – Yes Strong · High BTTS rate

The model’s BTTS probability of 61.9 % far exceeds typical market levels, and the recent goal‑rich form on both sides makes a clean sheet highly improbable.

Show the maths
Our model calculates BTTS probability by adding the home team’s 1.9 xG to the away team’s 1.3 xG, yielding a combined 3.2 xG. Historically, matches with a combined xG above 3.0 see both sides score roughly 62 % of the time, which aligns with the 61.9 % figure. The market does not currently price BTTS, so there is no direct odds comparison – but the raw probability alone signals a strong case for the bet. Because the model’s BTTS estimate is driven by concrete scoring rates, it offers a clear statistical edge.
Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score
Both Teams to Score — Yes 61.9% model probability

With St. Louis City SC averaging 1.9 expected goals and Real Salt Lake averaging 1.3, the model gives a 61.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 38.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths
BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (St. Louis City SC 1.9, Real Salt Lake 1.3) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 61.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 38.1% where at least one side is shut out.
Pick 3 · Total Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 62.0% model probability

Combined expected goals of 3.2 (St. Louis City SC 1.9 + Real Salt Lake 1.3) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 62.0% chance against 38.0% for Under.

Show the maths
Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (St. Louis City SC 1.9 + Real Salt Lake 1.3 = 3.2 combined): 62.0% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 38.0% finishing with 2 or fewer.
Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has St. Louis City SC at 51.5%, the draw at 22.4%, and Real Salt Lake at 26.2% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 10.1% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

St. Louis City SC expected goals
1.9
Real Salt Lake expected goals
1.3
Model BTTS probability
61.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1
10.1%
22-1
9.6%
31-0
7.7%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

St. Louis City SC

DWWWW

St. Louis opened the run with a 1‑1 draw at DC United, then exploded with 3‑0 wins over Austin and a 3‑2 victory at Sporting Kansas City, followed by a 3‑1 win at LA Galaxy and a 1‑0 win over Colorado. Scoring three or more goals in three consecutive games shows a goal threat that translates directly into the BTTS market.

Real Salt Lake

WWDLL

Real Salt Lake began with a 3‑0 home win over Houston and a 2‑1 home win over Colorado, then drew 1‑1 away at Minnesota United. Even after two recent defeats, the side still recorded three goals in each of its first two fixtures, proving they can find the net against varied opposition.

Head-to-Head

In the last five meetings the games have produced four draws (2‑2, 1‑1, 1‑1, 2‑2) and two high‑scoring affairs (3‑2, 3‑1), confirming a pattern of both teams scoring.

DateResultCompetition
19 Oct 2025St. Louis City 2-2 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
6 Jul 2025Real Salt Lake 3-2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
5 Feb 2025St. Louis City 1-1 Real Salt LakeFriendlies Clubs
31 Mar 2024Real Salt Lake 3-1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
25 Feb 2024St. Louis City 1-1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer

Odds Comparison

Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.

MarketSt. Louis City SCDrawReal Salt Lake
Match winner2.214.223.20
Over 2.5 goals1.55 (Nordic Bet)
Under 2.5 goals2.48 (Nordic Bet)

Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.

Team News

St. Louis City SC: B. McSorley (Injury), J. Orozco (Injury), Celio Pompeu (Knee Injury), A. Matan (Inactive)

Real Salt Lake: J. Glad (Groin Injury), M. Guilavogui (Red Card), A. Hezarkhani (Toe Injury), A. Piol (Achilles Tendon Injury)

Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.

More From This Week

Given the sustained scoring form and the model’s 61.9 % BTTS rating, the safest read is that both teams will breach the net at least once.

Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org

J
Written by Jonesy
North America Writer, TerraceBet — data-obsessed, opinionated, occasionally right