BK Hacken vs Kalmar FF: BK Hacken to win
BK Hacken sit on a 2.0 expected‑goals per game average at home, while Kalmar must scrape 0.7 away. Our model gives Hacken a 67.9% win chance versus the market’s implied 78.9% for a Hacken win, exposing clear value on the home side.
| Bookmaker | BK Hacken | Draw | Kalmar FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 3.96 | 3.96 |
| 888sport | 1.80 | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| Bet Victor | 1.73 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.79 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.73 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.72 | 3.78 | 3.75 |
| Betfair | 1.83 | 4.40 | 4.30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.75 | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.73 | 4.00 | 3.75 |
| Betsson | 1.78 | 3.85 | 4.05 |
| Betway | 1.75 | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| BoyleSports | 1.67 | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| Casumo | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| Coolbet | 1.83 | 4.10 | 4.05 |
| Coral | 1.75 | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| Everygame | 1.73 | 3.85 | 3.90 |
| GTbets | 1.83 | 4.08 | 3.88 |
| Grosvenor | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.75 | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| LeoVegas | 1.80 | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.60 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Matchbook | 1.84 | 4.40 | 4.30 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.78 | 3.85 | 4.05 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.55 | 3.65 | 4.10 |
| Paddy Power | 1.73 | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | 4.01 | 4.05 |
| Sky Bet | 1.70 | 3.75 | 3.60 |
| Smarkets | 1.84 | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| Tipico | 1.72 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.69 | 3.80 | 3.75 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.72 | 4.25 | 4.75 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.80 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.60 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.72 | 3.85 | 3.60 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.70 | 3.75 | 3.55 |
Hacken are the clear front‑runners in this Allsvenskan clash, having out‑scored the league average at home and boasting a recent run of high‑scoring victories. Kalmar, meanwhile, have struggled to find the net on the road, averaging under a goal per away game.
Lars's Verdict
Back Hacken to win as the model’s 67.9% win probability far exceeds the market’s implied odds for the home side, while Kalmar’s away odds are overpriced.
Show the maths
With BK Hacken averaging 2.0 expected goals and Kalmar FF averaging 0.7, the model gives a 56.5% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 43.5% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.7 (BK Hacken 2.0 + Kalmar FF 0.7) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has BK Hacken at 67.9%, the draw at 20.0%, and Kalmar FF at 12.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 13.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
BK Hacken
Hacken’s recent home form includes a 3‑2 victory over Hammarby FF, where they netted three goals against a strong opponent, and a 2‑0 win at Halmstad, confirming their ability to secure clean sheets. Their earlier 2‑4 loss to Djurgårdens IF and 3‑4 defeat at Örgryte IS highlight defensive lapses, but the overall trend of scoring at least two goals in three of the last five matches underpins a strong win case.
Kalmar FF
Kalmar’s away form has been sparse, with a 0‑3 loss to Gais and a 0‑2 defeat at Hammarby FF showing their inability to score on the road. They did manage a 2‑2 draw against Malmö FF at home, but the away record of two straight shutouts points to a low probability of overturning Hacken’s home advantage.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Kalmar have won three times, including a 3‑2 win on 28 June 2024, while Hacken managed a 3‑1 home victory on 12 May 2024, indicating a slight edge for Kalmar but not enough to offset Hacken’s current form.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov 2024 | Kalmar FF 1-0 BK Hacken | Allsvenskan |
| 28 Jun 2024 | Kalmar FF 3-2 BK Hacken | Friendlies Clubs |
| 12 May 2024 | BK Hacken 3-1 Kalmar FF | Allsvenskan |
| 24 Sep 2023 | Kalmar FF 1-0 BK Hacken | Allsvenskan |
| 15 Apr 2023 | BK Hacken 1-3 Kalmar FF | Allsvenskan |
Odds Comparison
Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.
| Market | BK Hacken | Draw | Kalmar FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 1.84 | 4.40 | 4.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.55 (Nordic Bet) | ||
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.48 (Nordic Bet) | ||
Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.
Team News
BK Hacken: E. Berisha (Back Injury), B. Engdahl (Injury), J. Lindberg (Yellow Cards), F. Ohman (Shoulder Injury)
Kalmar FF: V. Larsson (Injury), M. Stolt (Injury), A. Dari (Injury), A. Keita (Achilles Tendon Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
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With the model valuing Hacken’s win probability well above market pricing, the home side presents the most promising selection.
Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org