IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF: Degerfors IF to win
Degerfors IF carries a clear value edge at 4.9 odds despite being the underdog. Our model puts their win probability at 34.6%, well above the market's 20.4% implied chance.
| Bookmaker | IFK Goteborg | Draw | Degerfors IF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| 888sport | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| Bet Victor | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.33 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.74 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.33 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.64 | 3.45 | 4.15 |
| Betfair | 1.82 | 3.85 | 4.60 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.70 | 3.75 | 4.33 |
| Betsson | 1.72 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| Betway | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.33 |
| BoyleSports | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Casumo | 1.70 | 3.65 | 4.50 |
| Coolbet | 1.78 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| Coral | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Everygame | 1.70 | 3.65 | 4.33 |
| GTbets | 1.73 | 3.84 | 4.53 |
| Grosvenor | 1.71 | 3.75 | 4.60 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.71 | 3.75 | 4.60 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.64 | 3.50 | 4.25 |
| Matchbook | 1.82 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.72 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.57 | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| Paddy Power | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.33 |
| Pinnacle | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.52 |
| Sky Bet | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| Smarkets | 1.78 | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| Tipico | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.64 | 3.50 | 4.25 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.70 | 3.65 | 4.50 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.76 | 3.95 | 4.90 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.64 | 3.50 | 4.25 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.68 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.66 | 3.55 | 4.00 |
IFK Göteborg host a struggling Degerfors side in a clash that could swing the title race. Göteborg sit on a mixed run of form while Degerfors have failed to find the net in four of their last five league outings.
Lars's Verdict
Back Degerfors IF at 4.9 as the model shows a 34.6% chance of victory versus the market’s 20.4% implied probability.
Show the maths
With IFK Goteborg averaging 1.0 expected goals and Degerfors IF averaging 1.0, the model gives a 60.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 40.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.0 (IFK Goteborg 1.0 + Degerfors IF 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 67.7% chance against 32.3% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has IFK Goteborg at 34.6%, the draw at 30.9%, and Degerfors IF at 34.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 13.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
IFK Goteborg
Göteborg’s last five league games read W‑L‑L‑W‑L, highlighted by a 0‑4 loss at Malmö and a 1‑4 defeat at Sirius, indicating defensive vulnerability. Their recent 2‑1 home win over Brommapojkarna shows they can still score, but the inconsistency underlines why a surprise result is plausible.
Degerfors IF
Degerfors have managed only a single point from a draw (2‑2 vs Brommapojkarna) and endured four straight defeats, including a 0‑4 loss at Hammarby. Their inability to score—only two goals in five matches—means any win will likely be low‑scoring, aligning with the model’s equal expected‑goals projection.
Head-to-Head
Historically Göteborg dominate, winning five straight meetings (most recent 3‑1 on 8 Mar 2026), but recent form suggests the gap has narrowed, supporting the model’s elevated upset probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2026 | IFK Goteborg 3-1 Degerfors IF | Svenska Cupen |
| 4 Aug 2025 | IFK Goteborg 3-0 Degerfors IF | Allsvenskan |
| 19 May 2025 | Degerfors IF 1-3 IFK Goteborg | Allsvenskan |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Degerfors IF 1-2 IFK Goteborg | Allsvenskan |
| 4 May 2023 | IFK Goteborg 6-0 Degerfors IF | Allsvenskan |
Odds Comparison
Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.
| Market | IFK Goteborg | Draw | Degerfors IF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 1.82 | 4.00 | 4.90 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.84 (Coolbet) | ||
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.06 (Matchbook) | ||
Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.
Team News
IFK Goteborg: G. Ersoy (Muscle Injury), T. Heintz (Yellow Cards), D. Kruse (Yellow Cards), A. Mucolli (Knee Injury)
Degerfors IF: O. Leonardsson (Inactive), E. Lindell (Inactive), J. Pikkarainen (Inactive), D. Sundgren (Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
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The model’s 34.6% win probability for Degerfors starkly outpaces the 20.4% market implied odds, indicating a genuine value opportunity for bettors.
Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org