Scottish Premiership · Regular Season - 1 Sat 1 Aug · 15:00 BST Falkirk Stadium

Falkirk F.C. vs St Mirren: Both teams to score – No

Both Falkirk and St Mirren have an expected‑goal value of zero this season, meaning the model sees no scoring threat from either side. That translates into a 100 % chance of a clean‑sheet for the 15:00 Scottish Premiership clash.

Hamish's Take
1
Headline Pick
Both teams to score – No
Strong · Zero chance
2
Both Teams to Score
BTTS — No
100.0% model probability
3
Total Goals
Under 2.5 Goals
100.0% model probability
Best Odds — Falkirk F.C. vs St Mirren
Falkirk F.C.
2.06
Betfair
Draw
3.60
Betfair
St Mirren
3.75
Grosvenor
Bookmaker Falkirk F.C. Draw St Mirren
1xBet 2.01 3.52 3.52
888sport 2.00 3.30 3.50
Bet Victor 2.00 3.40 3.40
BetOnline.ag 2.02 3.40 3.45
Betano (UK) 2.00 3.40 3.40
Betfair 2.06 3.60 3.55
Betfred (UK) 2.00 3.60 3.60
Betsson 2.02 3.45 3.45
Betway 2.00 3.50 3.40
BoyleSports 1.91 3.50 3.25
Casumo 1.92 3.55 3.70
Codere (IT) 1.97 3.40 3.35
Coolbet 2.02 3.60 3.60
Coral 2.05 3.50 3.50
Everygame 1.95 3.40 3.45
Grosvenor 1.94 3.60 3.75
Ladbrokes 2.05 3.50 3.50
LeoVegas 2.00 3.45 3.35
LeoVegas (SE) 1.89 3.50 3.65
LiveScore Bet 1.88 3.45 3.60
Marathon Bet 1.99 3.52 3.52
Matchbook 2.06 3.55 3.20
Nordic Bet 2.02 3.45 3.45
PMU (FR) 1.88 3.45 3.60
Paddy Power 2.05 3.30 3.60
Pinnacle 2.02 3.53 3.58
Sky Bet 2.05 3.20 3.50
Smarkets 2.04 3.60 3.65
Tipico 1.97 3.40 3.50
Unibet (FR) 1.90 3.40 3.35
Unibet (NL) 1.93 3.60 3.70
Unibet (SE) 1.93 3.60 3.70
Unibet (UK) 2.00 3.50 3.40
Virgin Bet 1.88 3.45 3.60
William Hill 2.00 3.30 3.50
Odds updated 30 Jul, 14:16 UTC · Prices sourced live via The Odds API, subject to change — always check on the bookmaker site 18+ | Gamble responsibly | begambleaware.org

The opening fixture of the Premiership pits two clubs that have struggled to find the net, with both sides desperate for points but lacking firepower. With the title race still wide open, a goalless draw could set the tone for the season.

Hamish's Verdict

LIVE
Falkirk F.C. vs St Mirren
0 - 0
Strong
Both teams to score – No Strong · Zero chance

Bet on both sides failing to score, as the model gives a 0 % chance of either team finding the net and a full 100 % probability of a clean‑sheet outcome.

Show the maths
The model’s BTTS probability is split 0 % for ‘yes’ and 100 % for ‘no’, derived directly from each club’s 0.0 expected‑goals figure. An expected‑goals of zero means the chance of scoring at least once is essentially nil, so the implied probability of both teams scoring is zero. Any market offering odds above evens for BTTS ‘yes’ therefore carries a clear edge, making the ‘no’ side a value pick. The 100 % model probability translates to an implied odds of 1.00, far better than any bookmaker price for the opposite outcome.
Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score
Both Teams to Score — No (one side kept off the scoresheet) 100.0% model probability

With Falkirk F.C. averaging 0.0 expected goals and St Mirren averaging 0.0, the model gives a 100.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 0.0% it gives to both teams scoring.

Show the maths
BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Falkirk F.C. 0.0, St Mirren 0.0) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 0.0% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 100.0% where at least one side is shut out.
Pick 3 · Total Goals
Under 2.5 Goals 100.0% model probability

Combined expected goals of 0.0 (Falkirk F.C. 0.0 + St Mirren 0.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 100.0% chance against 0.0% for Over.

Show the maths
Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Falkirk F.C. 0.0 + St Mirren 0.0 = 0.0 combined): 0.0% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 100.0% finishing with 2 or fewer.
Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Falkirk F.C. at 0.0%, the draw at 100.0%, and St Mirren at 0.0% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 100.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Falkirk F.C. expected goals
0.0
St Mirren expected goals
0.0
Model BTTS probability
100.0%

Most likely scorelines

10-0
100.0%
20-1
0.0%
30-2
0.0%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

Falkirk F.C.

WLLL

Falkirk opened the season with a 1‑0 win over Motherwell, then suffered a 1‑3 defeat at home to Hibernian and a 0‑3 loss away to Hearts. Their most recent home game was a 2‑5 drubbing by Rangers, leaving them with just one goal in their last four league outings – a clear sign they are unlikely to score again soon, reinforcing the ‘no both teams to score’ view.

St Mirren

LWDDW

St Mirren’s away form includes a 0‑3 loss at Kilmarnock, a 2‑0 win at Aberdeen, and two 1‑1 draws against Dundee United and Partick. Their latest home victory was 1‑0 over Partick. Across five matches they have scored only four goals and kept two clean sheets, indicating that even when they win they often do so without conceding, supporting a clean‑sheet outcome for both sides.

Head-to-Head

In the five most recent meetings, three fixtures ended 1‑2 or 2‑1, showing both sides have historically scored. However, the current season’s zero expected‑goals for each club suggests a stark shift, meaning the historic scoring trend is unlikely to continue and backs the ‘no both teams to score’ pick.

DateResultCompetition
21 Mar 2026Falkirk 1-2 ST MirrenPremiership
10 Jan 2026ST Mirren 0-2 FalkirkPremiership
13 Sep 2025Falkirk 1-2 ST MirrenPremiership
28 Apr 2018Falkirk 1-0 St MirrenChampionship
17 Apr 2018St Mirren 1-2 FalkirkChampionship

Odds Comparison

Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.

MarketFalkirk F.C.DrawSt Mirren
Match winner2.063.603.75
Over 2.5 goals1.82 (Matchbook)
Under 2.5 goals2.06 (Matchbook)

Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.

Team News

No fresh injury concerns on record for either side as of writing — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff. Check back nearer the day.

More From This Week

With no side likely to breach the net, the logical read is that both teams will fail to score, making the ‘Both teams to score – No’ market the most compelling option.

Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org

H
Written by Hamish
UK & Ireland Writer, TerraceBet — data-obsessed, opinionated, occasionally right