St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock: Stay out
Both teams sit at a zero expected‑goals rate and the model rates the fixture as a guaranteed 0‑0 draw. The market, however, only backs a draw at 27.8% implied probability, exposing a severe mis‑pricing.
| Bookmaker | St Johnstone | Draw | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.18 | 3.40 | 3.19 |
| 888sport | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Bet Victor | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Betano (UK) | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.26 | 3.50 | 3.15 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| Betsson | 2.18 | 3.45 | 3.05 |
| Betway | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| BoyleSports | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Casumo | 2.20 | 3.45 | 3.05 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.13 | 3.30 | 3.05 |
| Coolbet | 2.20 | 3.60 | 3.15 |
| Coral | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| Everygame | 2.10 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
| Grosvenor | 2.23 | 3.50 | 3.05 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| LeoVegas | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.05 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.18 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.16 | 3.35 | 2.95 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.16 | 3.40 | 3.18 |
| Matchbook | 2.00 | 3.45 | 3.15 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.18 | 3.45 | 3.05 |
| PMU (FR) | 2.16 | 3.35 | 2.95 |
| Paddy Power | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 3.47 | 3.25 |
| Sky Bet | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Smarkets | 2.26 | 3.50 | 3.15 |
| Tipico | 2.15 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.05 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.23 | 3.50 | 3.05 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.23 | 3.50 | 3.05 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.16 | 3.35 | 2.95 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
St Johnstone host a Kilmarnock side that has won its last four away games, each by three or more goals. The Saints’ home record offers no clues – their scoring and conceding averages are both listed as zero, suggesting a match without firepower on either side.
Hamish's Verdict
The model’s 100 % draw probability versus the market’s 27.8 % implied chance means any wager would be badly priced, so the prudent move is to avoid the market entirely.
Show the maths
With St Johnstone averaging 0.0 expected goals and Kilmarnock averaging 0.0, the model gives a 100.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 0.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 0.0 (St Johnstone 0.0 + Kilmarnock 0.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 100.0% chance against 0.0% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has St Johnstone at 0.0%, the draw at 100.0%, and Kilmarnock at 0.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 100.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Head-to-Head
The last five meetings have produced three wins for Kilmarnock (including a 2‑0 win on 3 May 2025) and two wins for St Johnstone, but all scores are low‑scoring, underscoring the likelihood of another tight result.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2025 | ST Johnstone 0-2 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Kilmarnock 3-1 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 23 Nov 2024 | ST Johnstone 1-0 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 11 Aug 2024 | Kilmarnock 0-3 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 13 Apr 2024 | ST Johnstone 0-2 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
Odds Comparison
Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.
| Market | St Johnstone | Draw | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 2.26 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (Coolbet) | ||
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.04 (Matchbook) | ||
Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.
Team News
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Given the model’s certainty of a goalless stalemate and the market’s far lower valuation of a draw, any bet would be poorly priced – the safest read is to stay on the sidelines.
Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org