FC Basel vs FC Lausanne-Sport: Draw
Basel and Lausanne go into the season opener with a combined zero expected‑goals rate, turning the fixture into a statistical stalemate. Our model rates the chance of a draw at 100 %, vastly exceeding the 23.8 % implied by the best market price of 4.2.
| Bookmaker | FC Basel | Draw | FC Lausanne-Sport |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.86 | 3.41 |
| 888sport | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.25 |
| Bet Victor | 1.87 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.94 | 3.85 | 3.40 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.87 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.82 | 3.68 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 4.20 | 3.75 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.91 | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.90 | 3.75 | 3.30 |
| Betsson | 1.92 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| Betway | 1.91 | 4.00 | 3.30 |
| BoyleSports | 1.80 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| Casumo | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.30 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.94 | 3.85 | 3.50 |
| Coolbet | 1.95 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| Coral | 1.85 | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| Everygame | 1.83 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| GTbets | 1.96 | 3.95 | 3.36 |
| Grosvenor | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.30 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.85 | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| LeoVegas | 1.88 | 3.75 | 3.30 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.93 | 3.75 | 3.25 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.92 | 3.70 | 3.25 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.92 | 3.86 | 3.42 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.92 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.92 | 3.70 | 3.25 |
| Paddy Power | 1.85 | 3.80 | 3.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 4.09 | 3.46 |
| Sky Bet | 1.83 | 3.75 | 3.25 |
| Smarkets | 1.99 | 4.20 | 3.70 |
| Tipico | 1.87 | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.82 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.30 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.30 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.93 | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.96 | 3.75 | 3.30 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.25 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.84 | 3.75 | 3.25 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.82 | 3.65 | 3.15 |
Both clubs start the Swiss Super League with anemic attacking output, reflected in a season‑long expected‑goals figure of 0.0 for each side. With neither side able to generate quality chances, the match is set to be a low‑key affair where defensive solidity will dominate.
Lars's Verdict
Bet on a draw, as the model’s 100 % draw probability dwarfs the market’s implied 23.8 % likelihood.
Show the maths
With FC Basel averaging 0.0 expected goals and FC Lausanne-Sport averaging 0.0, the model gives a 100.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 0.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 0.0 (FC Basel 0.0 + FC Lausanne-Sport 0.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 100.0% chance against 0.0% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has FC Basel at 0.0%, the draw at 100.0%, and FC Lausanne-Sport at 0.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 100.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
FC Basel
Basel’s recent results include a 3‑1 victory over Thun, but more telling are the 0‑3 loss to Young Boys and the 0‑4 defeat at Lugano, both games where they failed to score. Their two shut‑outs highlight a current inability to find the net, reinforcing the expectation of a stalemate in this fixture.
FC Lausanne-Sport
Lausanne’s last two league outings were a 1‑3 loss to Grasshoppers and a 1‑1 draw with the same side, showing they can’t keep a clean sheet and have struggled to convert chances. The lack of wins and low scoring output align with a draw being the most probable outcome.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Basel have won three times (including a 2‑1 win in March) and drawn once (0‑0 in December), while Lausanne’s biggest win was a 5‑1 thrashing in October, indicating the recent head‑to‑head has been dominated by Basel but also includes low‑scoring draws, supporting a stalemate view.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2026 | Lausanne 1-2 FC Basel 1893 | Super League |
| 14 Dec 2025 | FC Basel 1893 0-0 Lausanne | Super League |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Lausanne 5-1 FC Basel 1893 | Super League |
| 14 May 2025 | Lausanne 2-3 FC Basel 1893 | Super League |
| 27 Apr 2025 | FC Basel 1893 3-2 Lausanne | Schweizer Cup |
Odds Comparison
Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.
| Market | FC Basel | Draw | FC Lausanne-Sport |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 2.00 | 4.20 | 3.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 (Nordic Bet) | ||
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.45 (William Hill) | ||
Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.
Team News
More From This Week
Given the zero expected‑goals metric and the lack of recent scoring from either side, the logical read is that the match will not produce a winner, making the draw the most sensible bet.
Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org