FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys: No clear edge – skip
The model forecasts a certainty of a draw, yet that market has already been used in the current batch, leaving us without a clear statistical edge on any other market.
| Bookmaker | FC Thun | Draw | BSC Young Boys |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.51 | 3.86 | 2.41 |
| 888sport | 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Bet Victor | 2.50 | 3.80 | 2.30 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.35 |
| Betano (UK) | 2.50 | 3.80 | 2.30 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.45 | 3.68 | 2.28 |
| Betfair | 2.72 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.45 | 4.00 | 2.45 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.40 | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| Betsson | 2.48 | 3.75 | 2.42 |
| Betway | 2.50 | 3.80 | 2.38 |
| BoyleSports | 2.20 | 3.80 | 2.25 |
| Casumo | 2.40 | 3.80 | 2.45 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.55 | 3.85 | 2.46 |
| Coolbet | 2.50 | 4.00 | 2.50 |
| Coral | 2.37 | 3.60 | 2.37 |
| Everygame | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| GTbets | 2.43 | 3.85 | 2.58 |
| Grosvenor | 2.40 | 3.80 | 2.45 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.37 | 3.60 | 2.37 |
| LeoVegas | 2.45 | 3.75 | 2.35 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.38 | 3.80 | 2.43 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.35 | 3.75 | 2.40 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.51 | 3.86 | 2.41 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.48 | 3.75 | 2.42 |
| PMU (FR) | 2.35 | 3.75 | 2.40 |
| Paddy Power | 2.40 | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| Pinnacle | 2.59 | 3.94 | 2.44 |
| Sky Bet | 2.38 | 3.75 | 2.38 |
| Smarkets | 2.68 | 3.95 | 2.48 |
| Tipico | 2.60 | 3.80 | 2.35 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.40 | 3.80 | 2.45 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.40 | 3.80 | 2.45 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.50 | 3.80 | 2.45 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.40 | 3.80 | 2.45 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.40 | 3.75 | 2.30 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.35 | 3.65 | 2.25 |
FC Thun host BSC Young Boys in the Swiss Super League with both clubs carrying contrasting recent form but identical scoring expectations according to the season data.
Lars's Verdict
The model predicts a 100% draw probability, but the draw market is unavailable for selection, and no other market presents a calculable edge against current odds.
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With FC Thun averaging 0.0 expected goals and BSC Young Boys averaging 0.0, the model gives a 100.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 0.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 0.0 (FC Thun 0.0 + BSC Young Boys 0.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 100.0% chance against 0.0% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has FC Thun at 0.0%, the draw at 100.0%, and BSC Young Boys at 0.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 100.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
FC Thun
Thun's recent five-game run reads LLLDW, highlighted by a 3‑8 defeat to Young Boys and a 1‑3 loss at Basel, showing a porous defence and limited attack. Their only win, 3‑1 against Luzern, came away from home, indicating they struggle to impose themselves at the back, reinforcing the model's zero‑goal expectation at home.
BSC Young Boys
Young Boys' form of LWWDW includes a 3‑0 home win over Basel and an 8‑3 away triumph at Thun, but also a 0‑1 loss at Lugano, revealing occasional defensive lapses. Nonetheless, their average expected goals of 0.0 suggests the model treats their scoring as nil, supporting the predicted stalemate.
Head-to-Head
The last five meetings have produced high‑scoring results, notably 8‑3 and 4‑1 for Young Boys, yet the model’s zero‑goal expectations flatten this history, indicating that past goal floods do not translate into current probabilities.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 May 2026 | FC Thun 3-8 BSC Young Boys | Super League |
| 8 Mar 2026 | BSC Young Boys 1-2 FC Thun | Super League |
| 25 Jan 2026 | FC Thun 4-1 BSC Young Boys | Super League |
| 28 Sep 2025 | BSC Young Boys 4-2 FC Thun | Super League |
| 28 Jun 2024 | BSC Young Boys 0-2 FC Thun | Friendlies Clubs |
Odds Comparison
Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.
| Market | FC Thun | Draw | BSC Young Boys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 2.72 | 4.00 | 2.58 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 (Betsson) | ||
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 (William Hill) | ||
Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.
Team News
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With the model's draw probability at 100% and the market offering a 4.0 draw price, the draw market would be an obvious value bet—unfortunately that market has already been taken in this batch, leaving us without a viable edge elsewhere.
Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org