IK Start vs Viking FK: IK Start to win
Start’s model win probability of 26.9% vastly exceeds the market‑implied 17.2% from Tipico’s 5.8 odds, delivering clear value. With both sides averaging around one goal per game, the match is likely to be tight enough for the underdog to scrape a win.
| Bookmaker | IK Start | Draw | Viking FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.58 | 4.61 | 1.54 |
| BetAnything | 5.30 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| BetOnline.ag | 5.30 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| Betclic (FR) | 5.00 | 4.25 | 1.42 |
| Betfair | 5.60 | 4.70 | 1.55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 5.50 | 4.75 | 1.44 |
| Betfred (UK) | 5.50 | 4.50 | 1.44 |
| Betsson | 5.35 | 4.40 | 1.55 |
| BoyleSports | 5.00 | 4.33 | 1.40 |
| Casumo | 5.40 | 4.20 | 1.51 |
| Codere (IT) | 5.20 | 4.40 | 1.47 |
| Coolbet | 5.70 | 4.65 | 1.54 |
| Coral | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.48 |
| Everygame | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.45 |
| GTbets | 5.48 | 4.56 | 1.54 |
| Grosvenor | 5.40 | 4.20 | 1.51 |
| Ladbrokes | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.48 |
| LeoVegas | 5.20 | 4.45 | 1.47 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 5.40 | 4.20 | 1.51 |
| LiveScore Bet | 5.30 | 4.10 | 1.49 |
| Marathon Bet | 5.45 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| Nordic Bet | 5.35 | 4.40 | 1.55 |
| PMU (FR) | 5.20 | 3.95 | 1.43 |
| Paddy Power | 5.50 | 4.50 | 1.40 |
| Pinnacle | 5.52 | 4.67 | 1.52 |
| Sky Bet | 5.25 | 4.33 | 1.40 |
| Smarkets | 5.60 | 4.60 | 1.53 |
| Tipico | 5.80 | 4.40 | 1.45 |
| Unibet (FR) | 5.10 | 4.35 | 1.42 |
| Unibet (NL) | 5.40 | 4.20 | 1.51 |
| Unibet (SE) | 5.40 | 4.20 | 1.51 |
| Unibet (UK) | 5.50 | 4.60 | 1.50 |
| Virgin Bet | 5.30 | 4.10 | 1.49 |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 |
| Winamax (DE) | 4.90 | 4.50 | 1.45 |
| Winamax (FR) | 4.80 | 4.40 | 1.43 |
Both clubs enter the first round of the Eliteserien with contrasting ambitions – Start looking to cement a home‑ground foothold, while Viking aim to continue their strong away run. The kickoff at 17:00 BST will decide early momentum in a league where every point counts.
Lars's Verdict
Back Start to win at 5.8, because the model’s 26.9% win probability gives a sizable edge over the market’s 17.2% implied chance.
Show the maths
With IK Start averaging 1.0 expected goals and Viking FK averaging 1.4, the model gives a 52.4% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 47.6% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.4 (IK Start 1.0 + Viking FK 1.4) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 57.0% chance against 43.0% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has IK Start at 26.9%, the draw at 27.0%, and Viking FK at 46.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
IK Start
Start’s recent five‑game run reads W‑L‑L‑L‑W, highlighted by a 2‑0 home win over Valerenga and a 2‑1 away victory at Kristiansund. Those two wins show they can score early and protect a lead, which is exactly what is needed to pull off an upset against a stronger Viking side.
Viking FK
Viking arrive on a WLWWD run, featuring three consecutive 2‑1 away wins against Kristiansund, Sandefjord and Lillestrom. Their ability to win by a single goal away demonstrates they can edge out opponents, but the recent 1‑1 draw at Aalesund hints at a potential slip in a tightly contested match like this one.
Head-to-Head
The last five meetings have heavily favoured Viking, including a 6‑3 thrashing in May and a 4‑0 win in February, yet Start managed a 4‑3 win in March, showing they can produce goals even when outmatched.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2026 | Viking 6-3 Start | Eliteserien |
| 6 Feb 2026 | Viking 4-0 Start | Friendlies Clubs |
| 23 Mar 2025 | Start 4-3 Viking | Friendlies Clubs |
| 25 Apr 2021 | Viking 3-3 Start | Friendlies Clubs |
| 28 Nov 2020 | Viking 4-1 Start | Eliteserien |
Odds Comparison
Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.
| Market | IK Start | Draw | Viking FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 5.80 | 4.75 | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 (Nordic Bet) | ||
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.52 (Nordic Bet) | ||
Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.
Team News
IK Start: F. Lien (Foot Injury), K. Tonnesen (Leg Injury), J. Torkildsen (Injury), J. Meyer (Groin Injury)
Viking FK: V. Berisha (Injury), H. Falchener (Thigh Injury), R. Postema (Injury), M. Roseth (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More From This Week
That statistical edge, combined with Start’s recent ability to win tight games, makes the home side a worthwhile bet despite the odds favoring Viking.
Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org