1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart: Hoffenheim Draw No Bet
Hoffenheim's 2.0 xG at home meets Stuttgart's 1.0 away xG, and the model rates a 60.5% win chance for the hosts. The odds tilt heavily toward a Hoffenheim draw‑no‑bet win.
Both sides come into the clash with contrasting recent fortunes: Hoffenheim have slipped after an opening win, while Stuttgart have only two league results to weigh – a heavy loss at Bayern followed by a dominant home victory over Köln.
Robbo's Verdict
Back Hoffenheim on a draw‑no‑bet basis, as the model’s adjusted win probability sits near 77% after excluding the 21.2% draw share.
Show the maths
With 1899 Hoffenheim averaging 2.0 expected goals and VfB Stuttgart averaging 1.0, the model gives a 54.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 3.0 (1899 Hoffenheim 2.0 + VfB Stuttgart 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 57.7% chance against 42.3% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has 1899 Hoffenheim at 60.5%, the draw at 21.2%, and VfB Stuttgart at 18.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 10.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
1899 Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim’s recent league run reads W‑L‑L‑L, highlighted by a 1‑0 home win over Werder Bremen and a 0‑4 away drubbing by Borussia Mönchengladbach. The win shows they can keep a clean sheet at home, while the heavy defeats expose defensive frailties – a mix that still favors a home win given their superior xG.
VfB Stuttgart
Stuttgart’s last two league games are L‑W, featuring a 1‑5 away loss to Bayern München and a 4‑1 home triumph over 1. FC Köln. The loss underscores defensive vulnerability on the road, and the big win proves they can score, yet the limited away sample suggests they struggle to replicate that firepower away from home.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Hoffenheim have drawn 3‑3 (2026‑05‑02) and lost 0‑3 (2024‑03‑16) at Stuttgart, indicating a mixed recent record but with Stuttgart capable of scoring on the road, which aligns with the model’s BTTS probability of 54.6%.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2 May 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3-3 VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 20 Dec 2025 | VfB Stuttgart 0-0 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 23 Feb 2025 | 1899 Hoffenheim 1-1 VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 6 Oct 2024 | VfB Stuttgart 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 16 Mar 2024 | 1899 Hoffenheim 0-3 VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
Team News (Pregame)
1899 Hoffenheim: F. Asllani (Injury), A. Prass (Muscle Injury), T. Lemperle (Red Card)
VfB Stuttgart: J. Arevalo (Back Injury), J. Diehl (Muscle Injury), L. Jaquez (Muscle Injury), N. Nartey (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
1899 Hoffenheim won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Hoffenheim Draw No Bet.
What was the final score of 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 VfB Stuttgart (full time).
When was 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
1899 Hoffenheim played VfB Stuttgart on Sat 12 Sep · 14:30 BST in the Bundesliga at SNP Arena.
More Bundesliga This Week
See all Bundesliga fixtures →With the draw removed, Hoffenheim’s win probability jumps to roughly 77%, making the draw‑no‑bet market the clearest edge.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
