AC Horsens vs Aarhus: AC Horsens to win
AC Horsens' attack averages 1.3 xG at home while Aarhus manage only 1.0 xG away. The model rates a Horsens win at 43.4 % versus a 28.6 % chance for the visitors.
Both clubs enter the clash on uneven recent runs – Horsens have shown they can score, Aarhus have struggled to find the net. The fixture pits Horsens' modest home firepower against an away side that has conceded heavily in its last five outings.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 43.4 % chance to a Horsens victory, outpacing both the draw and the visitor’s win probabilities.
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With AC Horsens averaging 1.3 expected goals and Aarhus averaging 1.0, the model gives a 54.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.3 (AC Horsens 1.3 + Aarhus 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 59.6% chance against 40.4% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has AC Horsens at 43.4%, the draw at 28.0%, and Aarhus at 28.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 13.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
AC Horsens
In their last five league outings, Horsens have won three and lost two, highlighted by a 2‑1 win away at Odense and a 5‑2 thrashing of Sonderjyske away. Those results reveal a side capable of breaching defenses, which supports the pick of a home win.
Aarhus
Aarhus' recent form is marked by four defeats and a single draw, including a 0‑2 loss at FC Nordsjaelland and a 0‑2 defeat at home to FC Midtjylland. The lack of goals in these games underlines their scoring weakness, reinforcing the case for Horsens to win.
Head-to-Head
The last five meetings have all ended in Aarhus victories, the most recent being a 2‑0 win on 15 July 2026. While history favors Aarhus, the model still leans toward Horsens due to current form and xG differentials.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2026 | Aarhus 2-0 AC Horsens | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2 Jul 2025 | Aarhus 2-1 AC Horsens | Friendlies Clubs |
| 30 Jun 2024 | AC Horsens 0-3 Aarhus | Friendlies Clubs |
| 8 Jul 2023 | Aarhus 2-1 AC Horsens | Friendlies Clubs |
| 3 Mar 2023 | Aarhus 2-0 AC Horsens | Superliga |
Team News (Pregame)
AC Horsens: C. Vestergaard (Knee Injury)
Aarhus: O. Haugstrup (Inactive), T. Kristjansson (Inactive), G. Links (Inactive), N. Poulsen (Achilles Tendon Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won AC Horsens vs Aarhus?
AC Horsens and Aarhus drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was AC Horsens to win.
What was the final score of AC Horsens vs Aarhus?
AC Horsens 2-2 Aarhus (full time).
When was AC Horsens vs Aarhus?
AC Horsens played Aarhus on Sun 20 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Danish Superliga at Hybel Arena Horsens.
More Danish Superliga This Week
See all Danish Superliga fixtures →Given Horsens' superior goal threat and Aarhus' inability to score in recent games, the model’s highest probability rests on a home win for Horsens.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
