AC Horsens vs Lyngby: Under 2.5 goals
Lyngby enter as favourites with a 47.0% win probability, but the model rates the match as 80.9% likely to stay under 2.5 goals.
Both sides come into the fixture with shaky recent form – Horsens have managed a draw, two losses and a win in their last four league outings, while Lyngby have alternated defeats and draws over the same span. The contrast between their expected goal tallies – 0.5 for Horsens at home and 1.0 for Lyngby away – sets a low‑scoring tone.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns an 80.9% probability to the match finishing with fewer than three goals, making the under 2.5 goals bet the most compelling choice.
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With AC Horsens averaging 0.5 expected goals and Lyngby averaging 1.0, the model gives a 75.1% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 24.9% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 1.5 (AC Horsens 0.5 + Lyngby 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 80.9% chance against 19.1% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has AC Horsens at 18.1%, the draw at 34.9%, and Lyngby at 47.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 22.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
AC Horsens
Horsens’ recent league run reads D‑L‑L‑W, highlighted by a 1‑1 draw with FC Nordsjælland at home and a 0‑2 home loss to Brøndby. The draw shows they can hold opponents, while the heavy defeat underlines defensive issues – both points reinforce a cautious approach that favours few goals.
Lyngby
Lyngby’s last four league results are L‑D‑L‑D, featuring a 2‑3 away loss to FC Copenhagen and a 0‑2 away defeat at Randers FC. Both defeats came with multiple goals conceded, but the draws (2‑2 vs Aarhus and 1‑1 vs FC Midtjylland) demonstrate an ability to limit scoring, supporting a low‑goal expectation.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, the results have been 0‑2, 1‑0, 1‑3, 0‑0 and 0‑0, with three clean sheets – two 0‑0 draws and a 0‑2 win for Horsens – indicating a history of low‑scoring outcomes that backs the under‑2.5 pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 25 May 2026 | Lyngby 0-2 AC Horsens | 1. Division |
| 4 Apr 2026 | AC Horsens 1-0 Lyngby | 1. Division |
| 9 Mar 2026 | AC Horsens 1-3 Lyngby | 1. Division |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Lyngby 0-0 AC Horsens | 1. Division |
| 3 Jun 2023 | AC Horsens 0-0 Lyngby | Superliga |
Team News (Pregame)
AC Horsens: C. Vestergaard (Knee Injury)
Lyngby: O. Snorre (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won AC Horsens vs Lyngby?
AC Horsens won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of AC Horsens vs Lyngby?
AC Horsens 2-1 Lyngby (full time).
When was AC Horsens vs Lyngby?
AC Horsens played Lyngby on Sun 23 Aug · 15:00 BST in the Danish Superliga at Hybel Arena Horsens.
More Danish Superliga This Week
See all Danish Superliga fixtures →Given the modest expected goals from both teams and the dominance of low‑scoring scorelines in the model’s projections, the safest read is that the game will stay under the 2.5‑goal threshold.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
