AC Horsens vs Viborg: Viborg to win
Viborg arrive with a 58% win probability and a 1.35 xG edge, while Horsens struggle at 0.5 xG at home. The model’s top scorelines favour a 0‑1 or 0‑2 win for the visitors.
Both sides come into the encounter with contrasting recent form – Horsens have managed just one win in their last five, whereas Viborg have collected seven points from two wins and a draw. The disparity in goal‑scoring metrics further underlines the expected dominance of the away side.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 58% probability to a Viborg win, driven by their superior expected goals and defensive solidity.
Show the maths
With AC Horsens averaging 0.5 expected goals and Viborg averaging 1.35, the model gives a 70.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 29.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 1.9 (AC Horsens 0.5 + Viborg 1.35) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 71.7% chance against 28.3% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has AC Horsens at 13.7%, the draw at 28.3%, and Viborg at 58.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 21.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
AC Horsens
Horsens have recorded a draw 1‑1 at home against FC Nordsjaelland, a 1‑2 loss away to FC Midtjylland, a 0‑2 home defeat to Brondby, and a 2‑1 away win over Odense. The mix of three defeats and a single win shows limited attacking output, reinforcing the low xG figure and supporting a low win probability for the pick.
Viborg
Viborg’s recent results include a 1‑0 home win over Odense, a 0‑0 away draw with Sonderjyske, and a 2‑1 home win against Aarhus, alongside a 2‑6 away loss to Aarhus and a 0‑1 away loss to Brondby. The two wins and draw demonstrate they can secure points even when conceding, aligning with the model’s 58% win chance.
Head-to-Head
In five recent meetings Viborg have won every match, with scorelines ranging from 0‑1 to 4‑2, confirming a clear historical dominance that backs the win pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2025 | AC Horsens 0-1 Viborg | DBU Pokalen |
| 4 Sep 2024 | AC Horsens 0-4 Viborg | DBU Pokalen |
| 25 Jan 2024 | Viborg 4-2 AC Horsens | Friendlies Clubs |
| 26 Feb 2023 | AC Horsens 0-3 Viborg | Superliga |
| 12 Sep 2022 | Viborg 2-1 AC Horsens | Superliga |
Team News (Pregame)
AC Horsens: C. Vestergaard (Knee Injury)
Viborg: T. Freriks (Knock), Y. Njoh (Injury), M. Riahi (Knee Injury), M. Hoedemakers (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won AC Horsens vs Viborg?
Viborg won 3-2. Our pre-match pick was Viborg to win.
What was the final score of AC Horsens vs Viborg?
AC Horsens 2-3 Viborg (full time).
When was AC Horsens vs Viborg?
AC Horsens played Viborg on Fri 28 Aug · 18:00 BST in the Danish Superliga at Hybel Arena Horsens.
More Danish Superliga This Week
See all Danish Superliga fixtures →These statistical gaps translate into a clear advantage for Viborg, making a victory the most probable outcome according to the model.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
