AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia: Both teams to score – Yes
AEK Athens and Levski Sofia head into their Champions League clash with almost identical expected goals, but both sides have shown a knack for finding the net in recent outings.
The encounter pits two clubs whose scoring rates hover around 1.3 xG each, meaning neither side is likely to dominate purely on firepower. With both teams coming off mixed domestic runs, the match is set to be tightly contested.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns a 53.9% chance to both sides finding the net, outpacing the 46.1% chance of a clean sheet, making BTTS the clear favourite.
Show the maths
With AEK Athens FC averaging 1.35 expected goals and Levski Sofia averaging 1.3, the model gives a 53.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 46.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.7 (AEK Athens FC 1.35 + Levski Sofia 1.3) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has AEK Athens FC at 38.1%, the draw at 26.1%, and Levski Sofia at 35.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
AEK Athens FC
AEK's recent league form shows a 0-0 draw against Levski away (A), indicating they can keep a clean sheet but also struggle to score. That defensive solidity combined with a lack of goals suggests they are unlikely to dominate the scoring, supporting a BTTS outcome rather than a shutout.
Levski Sofia
Levski’s last five league games include a 1-0 win over Universitatea Craiova at home, a 2-2 draw away, and back‑to‑back 1-0 wins over Kairat Almaty at home and away, before a 0-0 home draw with AEK. Their ability to score in three of those five matches, even when conceding, points to a propensity to find the net while also leaving room for the opponent to score.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head meeting on 18 Aug 2026 ended 0-0, showing both sides can hold each other scoreless, but the overall scoring trend in the model favors both teams scoring this time.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2026 | Levski Sofia 0-0 AEK Athens FC | UEFA Champions League |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia?
AEK Athens FC won 4-0. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – Yes.
What was the final score of AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia?
AEK Athens FC 4-0 Levski Sofia (full time).
When was AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia?
AEK Athens FC played Levski Sofia on Wed 26 Aug · 20:00 BST in the Champions League at Allwyn Arena.
More Champions League This Week
See all Champions League fixtures →Given the balanced scoring outlook and the recent trend of both sides conceding, the most compelling reading is that both teams will score.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
