Ajax vs FC Sion: Both teams to score - Yes
Ajax arrive in the Conference League tie with a 3.5 xG average, while Sion manage just 1.5. The model rates a high‑scoring, both‑sides‑find‑the‑net fixture at 74.6% probability.
Ajax host FC Sion in what is essentially a showcase of the Dutch side’s attacking depth. After blasting Vojvodina 4-1 both home and away and a recent 4-2 win over Sion, Ajax’s firepower looks unstoppable.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns a 74.6% chance that both Ajax and Sion will hit the net, making this the most compelling single market.
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With Ajax averaging 3.5 expected goals and FC Sion averaging 1.5, the model gives a 74.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 25.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 5.0 (Ajax 3.5 + FC Sion 1.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 86.5% chance against 13.5% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Ajax at 74.0%, the draw at 12.7%, and FC Sion at 12.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 3-1 at 7.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Ajax
Ajax’s recent run of WWWDW includes a 4-1 away win over Vojvodina and a 3-1 home victory against Shelbourne, showing they score freely regardless of venue. Those three wins, each with at least three goals, reinforce the expectation that they will breach Sion’s defence again, supporting a BTTS outcome.
FC Sion
Sion’s DWDWL sequence features a 4-0 home win over Bate Borisov and a 2-1 home win against FC Noah, proving they can score when the odds are in their favour. Even in their 2-4 loss to Ajax, they managed two goals, indicating they are capable of finding the net against strong opposition, which backs the BTTS pick.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head on 20 August saw Ajax win 4-2 away, with both sides scoring, confirming the trend of Sion finding the net against Ajax.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2026 | FC Sion 2-4 Ajax | UEFA Europa Conference League |
Team News (Pregame)
Ajax: D. Blind (Injury), A. Kaplan (Knee Injury), J. Sutalo (Injury), A. van Axel Dongen (Thigh Injury)
FC Sion: No notable injury concerns on record.
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Ajax vs FC Sion?
Ajax won 5-3. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Ajax vs FC Sion?
Ajax 5-3 FC Sion (full time).
When was Ajax vs FC Sion?
Ajax played FC Sion on Thu 27 Aug · 19:00 BST in the Conference League at Johan Cruijff Arena.
More Conference League This Week
See all Conference League fixtures →With both sides capable of finding the net and the statistical odds heavily favoring a BTTS outcome, the logical bet is for both teams to score.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
