Alaves vs Osasuna: Alaves to win
Alaves and Osasuna both sit on a 2.0 expected‑goals mark, but Alaves' flawless home defensive record tilts the balance.
Both sides come into the clash with identical scoring expectations, yet Alaves have not conceded a single goal at home this season, while Osasuna allow one per away game. That defensive edge is the key difference after a mixed run of results for both clubs.
Robbo's Verdict
Alaves' zero goals‑against average at home combined with a solid recent home form makes a home win the most plausible outcome.
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With Alaves averaging 2.0 expected goals and Osasuna averaging 2.0, the model gives a 74.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 25.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.0 (Alaves 2.0 + Osasuna 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 76.1% chance against 23.9% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Alaves at 39.6%, the draw at 20.7%, and Osasuna at 39.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 7.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Alaves
Alaves' last five league results include a 1‑0 win away at Oviedo, a 1‑2 home loss to Rayo Vallecano, a 3‑0 home win over Getafe, a 1‑1 away draw with Rayo Vallecano and a 1‑0 home victory over Villarreal. The three wins and two draws show they can both score and protect, reinforcing the expectation of a home win.
Osasuna
Osasuna's recent five matches feature a 1‑2 home loss to Espanyol, a 0‑1 away defeat at Getafe, a 0‑0 home draw with Levante, a 2‑1 away win at Celta Vigo and a 1‑0 home win over Getafe. The two wins after three defeats indicate improving form but also expose defensive frailties, supporting the view that they are unlikely to keep Alaves out.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, the teams have produced two 2‑2 draws, a 3‑0 Osasuna win, a 1‑1 draw and a 2‑1 Alaves victory, showing a balanced rivalry but with Alaves having a recent win, which aligns with the home‑win pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | Alaves 2-2 Osasuna | La Liga |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Osasuna 3-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| 24 May 2025 | Alaves 1-1 Osasuna | La Liga |
| 8 Dec 2024 | Osasuna 2-2 Alaves | La Liga |
| 10 Aug 2024 | Osasuna 1-2 Alaves | Friendlies Clubs |
Team News (Pregame)
Alaves: F. Garces (Suspended), T. Mendes (Knee Injury), N. Valentini (Red Card)
Osasuna: V. Rosier (Hamstring Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Alaves vs Osasuna?
Alaves won 5-2. Our pre-match pick was Alaves to win.
What was the final score of Alaves vs Osasuna?
Alaves 5-2 Osasuna (full time).
When was Alaves vs Osasuna?
Alaves played Osasuna on Sun 6 Sep · 17:30 BST in the La Liga at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
More La Liga This Week
See all La Liga fixtures →With Alaves' defence not yet breached at home and Osasuna’s away defence conceding on average, the most logical read is a narrow home victory for Alaves.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
