Alaves vs Valencia: Alaves to win
Alaves boast a 3.0 expected‑goals rate at home while Valencia manage only 1.0 on the road. The model gives Alaves a 77.1% chance to win, the clearest edge of the night.
Both sides come in with contrasting recent form – Alaves have collected four points from their last five league outings, while Valencia have secured just one point from the same span. The disparity sets the tone for a decisive encounter in the Basque stadium.
Robbo's Verdict
The model’s 77.1% win probability, driven by Alaves’ superior expected goals and Valencia’s weak away defence, points to a clear home victory.
Show the maths
With Alaves averaging 3.0 expected goals and Valencia averaging 1.0, the model gives a 59.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 40.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 4.0 (Alaves 3.0 + Valencia 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 75.8% chance against 24.2% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Alaves at 77.1%, the draw at 13.1%, and Valencia at 9.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-0 at 8.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Alaves
Alaves’ recent league run includes a 3-0 home win over Getafe and a 5-2 home victory against Osasuna, both highlighting their ability to find the net in abundance. Coupled with a 1-0 win over Villarreal, these results confirm a potent attack that underpins the win pick.
Valencia
Valencia have been shut out in a 0-0 home draw with Celta Vigo and then suffered a 0-5 home loss to Barcelona, showing both scoring droughts and defensive frailties. Their three consecutive defeats (including a 0-1 loss to Real Betis) further diminish their chances of salvaging points here.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Alaves have secured two wins (0-1 in July 2024 and 1-0 in May 2025) while Valencia have won once (3-2 in March 2026) and two matches ended in draws, indicating a slight edge for Alaves that aligns with the model’s win probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2026 | Valencia 3-2 Alaves | La Liga |
| 20 Oct 2025 | Alaves 0-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| 14 May 2025 | Alaves 1-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| 22 Dec 2024 | Valencia 2-2 Alaves | La Liga |
| 24 Jul 2024 | Valencia 0-1 Alaves | Friendlies Clubs |
Team News (Pregame)
Alaves: F. Garces (Suspended), T. Martinez (Foot Injury), M. Rodriguez (Ankle Injury), T. Mendes (Knee Injury)
Valencia: S. Canos (Knee Injury), J. Copete (Ankle Injury), D. Foulquier (Injury), D. Lopez (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Alaves vs Valencia?
Valencia won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Alaves to win.
What was the final score of Alaves vs Valencia?
Alaves 0-1 Valencia (full time).
When was Alaves vs Valencia?
Alaves played Valencia on Tue 15 Sep · 19:00 BST in the La Liga at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
More La Liga This Week
See all La Liga fixtures →Those numbers translate into a strong probability that Alaves will dominate the scoreboard, making a straight win the logical pick.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
