Alaves vs Valencia: Alaves to win
Alaves boast a 3.0 expected‑goals rate at home while Valencia manage only 1.0 on the road. The model gives Alaves a 77.1% chance to win, the clearest edge of the night.
Both sides come in with contrasting recent form – Alaves have collected four points from their last five league outings, while Valencia have secured just one point from the same span. The disparity sets the tone for a decisive encounter in the Basque stadium.
Robbo's Verdict
The model’s 77.1% win probability, driven by Alaves’ superior expected goals and Valencia’s weak away defence, points to a clear home victory.
Show the maths
With Alaves averaging 3.0 expected goals and Valencia averaging 1.0, the model gives a 59.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 40.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 4.0 (Alaves 3.0 + Valencia 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 75.8% chance against 24.2% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Alaves at 77.1%, the draw at 13.1%, and Valencia at 9.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-0 at 8.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Alaves
Alaves’ recent league run includes a 3-0 home win over Getafe and a 5-2 home victory against Osasuna, both highlighting their ability to find the net in abundance. Coupled with a 1-0 win over Villarreal, these results confirm a potent attack that underpins the win pick.
Valencia
Valencia have been shut out in a 0-0 home draw with Celta Vigo and then suffered a 0-5 home loss to Barcelona, showing both scoring droughts and defensive frailties. Their three consecutive defeats (including a 0-1 loss to Real Betis) further diminish their chances of salvaging points here.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Alaves have secured two wins (0-1 in July 2024 and 1-0 in May 2025) while Valencia have won once (3-2 in March 2026) and two matches ended in draws, indicating a slight edge for Alaves that aligns with the model’s win probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2026 | Valencia 3-2 Alaves | La Liga |
| 20 Oct 2025 | Alaves 0-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| 14 May 2025 | Alaves 1-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| 22 Dec 2024 | Valencia 2-2 Alaves | La Liga |
| 24 Jul 2024 | Valencia 0-1 Alaves | Friendlies Clubs |
Team News
Alaves: F. Garces (Suspended), T. Martinez (Foot Injury), M. Rodriguez (Ankle Injury), T. Mendes (Knee Injury)
Valencia: S. Canos (Knee Injury), J. Copete (Ankle Injury), D. Foulquier (Injury), D. Lopez (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Alaves vs Valencia?
Alaves to win. The model’s 77.1% win probability, driven by Alaves’ superior expected goals and Valencia’s weak away defence, points to a clear home victory.
What does the model give Alaves vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Alaves a 77.1% chance, the draw 13.1%, and Valencia 9.4% to win.
When is Alaves vs Valencia?
Alaves play Valencia on Tue 15 Sep · 19:00 BST in the La Liga at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
Are there any injury concerns for Alaves vs Valencia?
Alaves: F. Garces (Suspended), T. Martinez (Foot Injury), M. Rodriguez (Ankle Injury), T. Mendes (Knee Injury). Valencia: S. Canos (Knee Injury), J. Copete (Ankle Injury), D. Foulquier (Injury), D. Lopez (Knee Injury). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More La Liga This Week
See all La Liga fixtures →Those numbers translate into a strong probability that Alaves will dominate the scoreboard, making a straight win the logical pick.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
