Alaves vs Villarreal: Alaves to win
Alaves carry a 58.1% win probability into the clash, backed by a 3.0 expected‑goals rating versus Villarreal’s 2.0. Both teams’ attacking numbers push the model’s over‑2.5‑goals chance to 87.1%.
Alaves host Villarreal at Mendizorrotza with the model favouring the Basque side by a clear margin. The fixture pits Alaves’ spotless home defence against a Villarreal outfit that concedes two goals on average when away.
Robbo's Verdict
The model’s 58.1% win probability, combined with Alaves’ three‑goal home average and Villarreal’s two‑goal away concession rate, points to a home victory.
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With Alaves averaging 3.0 expected goals and Villarreal averaging 2.0, the model gives a 81.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 18.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 5.0 (Alaves 3.0 + Villarreal 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 87.1% chance against 12.9% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Alaves at 58.1%, the draw at 16.8%, and Villarreal at 24.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 6.1% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Alaves
Alaves’ recent five‑game run reads WWLWD, highlighted by a 1‑0 win over Barcelona at home and a 3‑0 home thrashing of Getafe. Their only loss came 1‑2 to Rayo Vallecano at home, while a 1‑1 draw away at Rayo shows they can still be held. This mix of three wins, a loss and a draw underlines a strong home attack that backs a win pick.
Villarreal
Villarreal’s last five league outings are WDD, featuring a 5‑1 home victory over Atletico Madrid but two 2‑2 away draws against Racing Santander and Atletico Madrid. The away draws, both with two goals conceded, illustrate a tendency to leak goals on the road, which aligns with the model’s view of Alaves having the edge.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Alaves have secured a 1‑1 draw (2026-03-13) and a 1‑0 win (2025-03-08), while Villarreal recorded a 3‑1 win (2026-01-10) and a 3‑0 win (2024-11-09). The recent balanced record, with Alaves holding a draw at home, supports the expectation of a close but winnable game for the hosts.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Mar 2026 | Alaves 1-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
| 10 Jan 2026 | Villarreal 3-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| 8 Mar 2025 | Alaves 1-0 Villarreal | La Liga |
| 9 Nov 2024 | Villarreal 3-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| 10 Feb 2024 | Alaves 1-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
Team News (Pregame)
Alaves: F. Garces (Suspended), T. Mendes (Knee Injury), N. Valentini (Red Card)
Villarreal: A. Diatta (Red Card), W. Kambwala (Transfer negotiations)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Alaves vs Villarreal?
Alaves won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Alaves to win.
What was the final score of Alaves vs Villarreal?
Alaves 1-0 Villarreal (full time).
When was Alaves vs Villarreal?
Alaves played Villarreal on Fri 28 Aug · 20:30 BST in the La Liga at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
More La Liga This Week
See all La Liga fixtures →With a solid 58.1% chance to win and both sides poised to find the net, the clearest edge belongs to the home side.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
