Aldosivi vs Atletico Tucuman: Atletico Tucuman to win
Atletico Tucuman head into the clash with a 41.6% win probability, backed by a superior expected‑goals rate of 1.0 versus Aldosivi's 0.7. The model also flags a 75.7% chance the game stays under 2.5 goals.
Aldosivi come off a mixed five‑game run of DLLWL, including a 3‑1 home win over Banfield but three defeats surrounding it. Atletico Tucuman have been steadier, posting a WDDWL sequence highlighted by a 2‑1 away victory at Racing Club before a 1‑2 home loss to River Plate.
Bez's Verdict
The model assigns Tucuman a 41.6% chance of victory, driven by their higher xG and a more favourable recent run.
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With Aldosivi averaging 0.7 expected goals and Atletico Tucuman averaging 1.0, the model gives a 68.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 31.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 1.7 (Aldosivi 0.7 + Atletico Tucuman 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 75.7% chance against 24.3% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Aldosivi at 24.9%, the draw at 33.5%, and Atletico Tucuman at 41.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 18.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Aldosivi
Aldosivi’s last five league outings (DLLWL) feature a 0‑0 draw versus Tigre, a 1‑3 home loss to Union Santa Fe, a 1‑2 away defeat at Argentinos JRS, a 3‑1 home win over Banfield, and a 3‑4 away loss to Independiente Rivadavia. The three defeats and solitary win illustrate inconsistency, supporting the view that they are less likely to secure a victory here.
Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman’s recent five results (WDDWL) include a 1‑0 away win over Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, a 0‑0 home draw with Instituto Cordoba, a 0‑0 home draw with Belgrano Cordoba, a 2‑1 away win at Racing Club, and a 1‑2 home loss to River Plate. Four unbeaten games before the latest defeat show they have more momentum than Aldosivi, bolstering the away‑win case.
Head-to-Head
In the head‑to‑head record, the last five meetings produced two draws (1‑1 in 2026 and 2‑2 in 2021), a 0‑1 win for Tucuman in 2022, a 3‑0 win for Aldosivi in 2019, and a goalless draw in 2020, indicating no clear dominance but a slight edge for Tucuman in recent outcomes.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2026 | Atletico Tucuman 1-1 Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 16 Jul 2022 | Aldosivi 0-1 Atletico Tucuman | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 14 Aug 2021 | Atletico Tucuman 2-2 Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 10 May 2020 | Atletico Tucuman None-None Aldosivi | Copa de la Superliga |
| 26 Aug 2019 | Aldosivi 3-0 Atletico Tucuman | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Aldosivi vs Atletico Tucuman?
Aldosivi won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Atletico Tucuman to win.
What was the final score of Aldosivi vs Atletico Tucuman?
Aldosivi 1-0 Atletico Tucuman (full time).
When was Aldosivi vs Atletico Tucuman?
Aldosivi played Atletico Tucuman on Mon 21 Sep · 18:30 BST in the Argentine Primera División at Estadio Jose Maria Minella.
More Argentine Primera División This Week
See all Argentine Primera División fixtures →With the visitors’ edge in both expected goals and recent results, the model leans heavily toward an away win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
