Aldosivi vs Banfield: Banfield to win
Aldosivi's 0.5 expected goals meet Banfield's 0.8 in a fixture where the model rates Banfield's win chance at 39.6% against Aldosivi's 21.1%. Both sides have struggled to score lately, pointing to a tight, low‑scoring encounter.
Both clubs enter this match on shaky runs – Aldosivi have dropped four of their last five league games, while Banfield have managed just one win in the same span. Their recent results suggest a battle of marginal gains rather than an open showdown.
Bez's Verdict
The model assigns Banfield a 39.6% chance of victory versus Aldosivi's 21.1%, reflecting Banfield's higher expected goals and comparatively better recent form.
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With Aldosivi averaging 0.5 expected goals and Banfield averaging 0.8, the model gives a 78.3% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 21.7% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 1.3 (Aldosivi 0.5 + Banfield 0.8) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 85.7% chance against 14.3% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Aldosivi at 21.1%, the draw at 39.3%, and Banfield at 39.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 27.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Aldosivi
Aldosivi's recent five‑game run reads L L D L L, highlighted by a 1‑2 defeat to Gimnasia at home and a goalless draw with Tigre on their own turf. Four losses and only one point from ten possible indicate a fragile attack and a defence that concedes frequently, supporting the view that they are unlikely to score against Banfield.
Banfield
Banfield's last five fixtures show D L W L L, with a notable 1‑0 away win over Racing Club and a 2‑3 home loss to River Plate. The solitary win demonstrates they can score, while the other results reflect a team that often fails to secure points, suggesting they can edge Aldosivi but may struggle to dominate.
Head-to-Head
In the last five head‑to‑heads, Aldosivi have won three times (including a 2‑1 win on 26 April 2025) and Banfield twice (most recent 2‑0 win on 3 March 2026). The historical edge favors Aldosivi, but the model still leans toward a Banfield victory.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Mar 2026 | Banfield 2-0 Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Banfield 0-1 Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 26 Apr 2025 | Aldosivi 2-1 Banfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 12 Oct 2022 | Aldosivi 0-1 Banfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 19 Nov 2021 | Banfield 0-2 Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Aldosivi vs Banfield?
Aldosivi won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Banfield to win.
What was the final score of Aldosivi vs Banfield?
Aldosivi 3-1 Banfield (full time).
When was Aldosivi vs Banfield?
Aldosivi played Banfield on Sat 5 Sep · 17:30 BST in the Argentine Primera División at TBC.
More Argentine Primera División This Week
See all Argentine Primera División fixtures →The combination of Aldosivi's low xG, Banfield's slightly superior scoring rate, and the model’s 39.6% win probability for Banfield makes the visitors the clear favorite for three points.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
