Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe: Union Santa Fe to win
Union Santa Fe arrive with a 1.3 expected‑goals edge against Aldosivi’s 0.4 xG. The model rates a 59.6% chance of a Santa Fe win, making it the clearest probability in this fixture.
Both sides have struggled to find the net lately, but the visitors have shown a higher scoring rate over the season. Aldosivi sit on a modest 0.4 expected‑goals per game while Union Santa Fe generate 1.3, setting the stage for a one‑sided encounter.
Bez's Verdict
Given the 1.3 vs 0.4 expected‑goals differential and a 59.6% model win probability, Santa Fe are the logical winners.
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With Aldosivi averaging 0.4 expected goals and Union Santa Fe averaging 1.3, the model gives a 76.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 24.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 1.7 (Aldosivi 0.4 + Union Santa Fe 1.3) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 75.7% chance against 24.3% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Aldosivi at 11.4%, the draw at 29.1%, and Union Santa Fe at 59.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 23.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Aldosivi
Aldosivi’s last five league results – DLLLD – feature a 1‑1 draw at Defensa Y Justicia and a 0‑0 home stalemate with Tigre, showing they struggle to score. The two recent 1‑2 defeats (home to Gimnasia L.P. and away at Rosario Central) highlight defensive frailties, reinforcing the low expected‑goals figure and supporting the view that they are unlikely to win this match.
Union Santa Fe
Union Santa Fe’s five‑game stretch of DLWLL includes a 2‑1 home win over Lanus and a 2‑2 away draw with Platense, both showing they can find the net. The 0‑2 away loss to Gimnasia M. and narrow defeats to Central Córdoba and San Lorenzo underline occasional defensive lapses but do not diminish their higher scoring rate, backing the pick of a Santa Fe win.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Union Santa Fe have won twice (1‑0 on 23 Feb 2026 and 1‑2 on 01 Oct 2021) and lost twice, with one draw, indicating a slight edge that aligns with the model’s win probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb 2026 | Union Santa Fe 1-0 Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Union Santa Fe 0-2 Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 27 Mar 2025 | Aldosivi 2-1 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 28 Aug 2022 | Union Santa Fe 0-0 Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 1 Oct 2021 | Aldosivi 1-2 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe?
Union Santa Fe won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Union Santa Fe to win.
What was the final score of Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe?
Aldosivi 1-3 Union Santa Fe (full time).
When was Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe?
Aldosivi played Union Santa Fe on Fri 21 Aug · 18:30 BST in the Argentine Primera División at TBC.
More Argentine Primera División This Week
See all Argentine Primera División fixtures →The gap in expected goals, combined with Santa Fe’s superior recent scoring performances, points to a clear advantage for the visitors.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
