Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise: Union St. Gilloise to win
Antwerp's 2.3 expected goals meet Union St. Gilloise's 3.7, while the model gives the visitors a 62.8% chance of victory. The goal‑rich environment is reinforced by an 86.5% BTTS probability and a 92.4% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Both sides arrive with contrasting recent form – Antwerp have slipped to a single win in five, whereas Union St. Gilloise sit on a four‑match winning streak. The clash pits Antwerp's leaky defence (3.0 conceded per game) against a Union side that concedes just once per outing away.
Lars's Verdict
The model rates Union's win probability at 62.8%, driven by their superior expected goals and a recent run of four straight victories.
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With Antwerp averaging 2.3 expected goals and Union St. Gilloise averaging 3.7, the model gives a 86.5% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 13.5% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 6.0 (Antwerp 2.3 + Union St. Gilloise 3.7) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 92.4% chance against 7.6% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Antwerp at 21.4%, the draw at 14.3%, and Union St. Gilloise at 62.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-3 at 5.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Antwerp
Antwerp's last five league outings read WDLLL, including a 3‑0 away win over Kortrijk and a 4‑4 home draw with Genk. The subsequent three defeats – 1‑4 to St. Truiden, 0‑1 at Standard Liege and 1‑3 at Club Brugge – show a defence that concedes heavily, which underpins the low win probability for Antwerp in this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise have amassed a DWWWW run, highlighted by a 3‑0 home win over Anderlecht and a 5‑0 home demolition of Lommel United. Their away victories – 3‑0 at St. Truiden and 3‑2 at Charleroi – demonstrate a consistent ability to score multiple goals on the road, reinforcing the expectation of a high‑scoring win here.
Head-to-Head
In the most recent meeting on 21 Feb 2026, Union won 2‑1 away, and the last five encounters feature three Union victories (including a 0‑4 away win) and a single draw, supporting the model’s strong tilt toward a Union win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2026 | Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Antwerp | Jupiler Pro League |
| 25 Jul 2025 | Antwerp 1-1 Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League |
| 17 May 2025 | Antwerp 0-4 Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Union St. Gilloise 5-1 Antwerp | Jupiler Pro League |
| 8 Jan 2025 | Antwerp 5-1 Union St. Gilloise | Cup |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Union St. Gilloise to win.
What was the final score of Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Antwerp 0-2 Union St. Gilloise (full time).
When was Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Antwerp played Union St. Gilloise on Sun 20 Sep · 12:30 BST in the Belgian Pro League at Bosuilstadion.
More Belgian Pro League This Week
See all Belgian Pro League fixtures →All indicators point to Union St. Gilloise dictating the tempo and finding the net more often, making a Union win the most credible outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
