Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908: Over 2.5 goals
Aris Thessalonikis boast a 2.0 expected‑goals rate at home while Iraklis 1908 manage only 1.0 away. The model puts the Over 2.5‑goals market at 57.7 % probability, the clearest edge of the available selections.
Both sides arrive with contrasting recent runs – Aris on a three‑win streak before two defeats, and Iraklis slipping to a single win in four matches. The clash pits Aris' potent home attack against an Iraklis side that concedes heavily on the road.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 57.7 % chance of over 2.5 goals, driven by Aris' 2.0 home xG and Iraklis' 1.7 away goals‑against average.
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With Aris Thessalonikis averaging 2.0 expected goals and Iraklis 1908 averaging 1.0, the model gives a 54.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.0 (Aris Thessalonikis 2.0 + Iraklis 1908 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 57.7% chance against 42.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Aris Thessalonikis at 60.5%, the draw at 21.2%, and Iraklis 1908 at 18.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 10.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Aris Thessalonikis
Aris' recent form of WWWLL includes a 3‑0 home win over Levadiakos and a 2‑1 home victory against OFI, showing they can create and finish chances in front of their own crowd. The two consecutive losses – 0‑5 away at AEK Athens and 0‑2 away at PAOK – underline a defensive fragility that does not diminish their scoring ability at home, reinforcing the likelihood of multiple goals in this fixture.
Iraklis 1908
Iraklis' form LDWD features a 2‑0 away win over Asteras Tripolis and a 1‑1 away draw with Volos NFC, indicating they can score but also struggle defensively, having let in four goals in an earlier away loss to AEK Athens. Their recent draws and a solitary win suggest a modest attack that, when combined with Aris' firepower, can still contribute to a goal‑rich game.
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908?
Aris Thessalonikis and Iraklis 1908 drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908?
Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Iraklis 1908 (full time).
When was Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908?
Aris Thessalonikis played Iraklis 1908 on Sat 19 Sep · 16:00 BST in the Super League Greece at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
More Super League Greece This Week
See all Super League Greece fixtures →With both sides capable of finding the net and the away side vulnerable defensively, the match is primed for a goal‑rich encounter.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
