Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI preview by Lars for TerraceBet

Super League Greece · Regular Season - 2 FT · Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 OFI Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium

Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI: Both teams to score - Yes

Aris Thessalonikis and OFI meet in a tightly poised Super League clash, with both sides posting identical expected‑goal figures of 1.35. The model rates a Both‑Teams‑to‑Score outcome at just under 55 % probability.

Lars — European Football Writer, Continental European leagues from the Eredivisie to the Superliga

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Lars's Take

Headline Pick

Both teams to score - Yes Won

Solid · Scoring parity

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Won

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

50.6% model probability

Both clubs arrive on a contrasting recent run – Aris have ridden a five‑match winning streak, while OFI have recovered from three defeats to claim two wins. Their head‑to‑head record is evenly split, making the encounter a test of recent form versus historical balance.

Lars's Verdict

Solid

Both teams to score - Yes Won Solid lean Solid · Scoring parity

The model assigns a 54.9 % chance to both sides scoring, outpacing the 45.1 % chance of a clean sheet for either team.

Show the maths

Aris and OFI each have an expected‑goal value of 1.35, which the model translates into a combined scoring probability above 50 %. The BTTS model output of 54.9 % reflects that both teams are likely to exceed their individual xG in the same match. Since the match‑result odds are evenly split, the scoring edge becomes the decisive factor, pushing the BTTS Yes probability above the 50 % threshold.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Won 54.9% model probability

With Aris Thessalonikis averaging 1.35 expected goals and OFI averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Aris Thessalonikis 1.35, OFI 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Aris Thessalonikis 1.35 + OFI 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Aris Thessalonikis 1.35 + OFI 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Aris Thessalonikis at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and OFI at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Aris Thessalonikis expected goals

1.35

OFI expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

Aris Thessalonikis

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Aris Thessalonikis have won all five of their recent league games, highlighted by a 3‑1 victory over OFI (H) and a 3‑0 win at Levadiakos (H). This unbroken streak shows a potent attack that consistently finds the net, reinforcing the expectation that they will score against OFI again.

OFI

LLLWW

OFI have turned their form around with two wins after three straight losses, notably a 3‑1 home win over Volos NFC (H) and a 2‑0 home win over the same side (H). Even after a rough start, these results demonstrate OFI’s ability to score, supporting the BTTS Yes outlook.

Head-to-Head

In the last five meetings, Aris have won twice (3‑1 on 10 May 2026, 2‑0 on 3 May 2026), OFI have won twice (2‑0 on 22 Mar 2026, 3‑0 on 4 Oct 2025), and there is one draw (1‑1 on 3 May 2025) – the split record underscores the likelihood of both sides scoring.

Date	Result	Competition
10 May 2026	Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 OFI	Super League 1
3 May 2026	OFI 0-2 Aris Thessalonikis	Super League 1
22 Mar 2026	Aris Thessalonikis 0-2 OFI	Super League 1
4 Oct 2025	OFI 3-0 Aris Thessalonikis	Super League 1
3 May 2025	OFI 1-1 Aris Thessalonikis	Super League 1

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Live score boxscore ready on Fox Sports

4 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?

Aris Thessalonikis won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.

What was the final score of Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?

Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 OFI (full time).

When was Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?

Aris Thessalonikis played OFI on Sun 30 Aug · 17:30 BST in the Super League Greece at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.

More Super League Greece This Week

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Given the parity in expected goals and the recent propensity for both teams to score, the safest read points to both sides putting a goal past the keeper.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Lars

European Football Writer, TerraceBet — Continental European leagues from the Eredivisie to the Superliga