Asteras Tripolis vs Iraklis 1908: Asteras Tripolis to win
Asteras Tripolis enter as clear favorites with a 58% win probability and a 1.35 expected‑goals advantage, while Iraklis 1908 struggle at 0.5 xG and a 13.7% chance to win.
Both sides arrive with divergent recent form: Asteras have collected seven points from their last five league outings, whereas Iraklis have managed only one point from their two most recent games.
Lars's Verdict
Back the home side to secure three points, given the model’s 58% win odds and their superior expected‑goals profile.
Show the maths
With Asteras Tripolis averaging 1.35 expected goals and Iraklis 1908 averaging 0.5, the model gives a 70.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 29.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 1.9 (Asteras Tripolis 1.35 + Iraklis 1908 0.5) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 71.7% chance against 28.3% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Asteras Tripolis at 58.0%, the draw at 28.3%, and Iraklis 1908 at 13.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 21.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Asteras Tripolis
Asteras have earned seven points from their last five games, highlighted by a 1‑0 win over Panserraikos and a 2‑1 away triumph against Panetolikos. The subsequent 1‑3 loss to the same opponents and a 0‑1 defeat at Olympiakos expose defensive lapses, but the overall points tally shows they are still the stronger side for this pick.
Iraklis 1908
Iraklis have taken just one point from their last two fixtures, a 0‑4 loss at AEK Athens followed by a 1‑1 draw away to Volos. The heavy defeat and inability to secure a win underline a limited attacking threat, reinforcing the expectation that they will struggle to overturn the home side’s advantage.
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Asteras Tripolis vs Iraklis 1908?
Iraklis 1908 won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Asteras Tripolis to win.
What was the final score of Asteras Tripolis vs Iraklis 1908?
Asteras Tripolis 0-2 Iraklis 1908 (full time).
When was Asteras Tripolis vs Iraklis 1908?
Asteras Tripolis played Iraklis 1908 on Mon 7 Sep · 16:00 BST in the Super League Greece at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
More Super League Greece This Week
See all Super League Greece fixtures →The combination of a higher xG, a solid points haul and a markedly lower win probability for the visitors points to a straightforward home win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
