Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus: Both teams to score - Yes
Asteras Tripolis host Olympiakos Piraeus in a match where both sides average identical expected goals of 1.35, and the model assigns a 54.9% chance of both teams finding the net.
The fixture pits a side that has been alternating between draws and wins at home against a travelling Olympiakos side that has produced a draw and a win in its last two league outings. With equal expected goal output, the game promises a balanced attacking showdown.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 54.9% probability to both sides scoring, edging the likelihood beyond the 50% threshold.
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With Asteras Tripolis averaging 1.35 expected goals and Olympiakos Piraeus averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Asteras Tripolis 1.35 + Olympiakos Piraeus 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Asteras Tripolis at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Olympiakos Piraeus at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Asteras Tripolis
Asteras Tripolis' last five league results are D‑W‑D‑W‑L. They secured a 1‑0 home win against Panserraikos and later edged Panetolikos 2‑1 away, demonstrating an ability to score while limiting opponents. Those performances underpin the expectation that they will find the net against Olympiakos.
Olympiakos Piraeus
Olympiakos Piraeus' recent league form consists of a 1‑1 draw at AEK Athens and a 1‑0 home win over Atromitos. The draw shows they can score away, while the clean‑sheet win confirms they can also keep a defence tight. Both results support the view that they will add a goal in this encounter.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, Olympiakos has won three times (including a 3‑0 win on 2026‑02‑04) and Asteras has only one win (1‑0 on 2024‑10‑27), indicating Olympiakos' recent superiority but also that both teams have scored in several fixtures, aligning with the BTTS outlook.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Feb 2026 | Asteras Tripolis 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus | Super League 1 |
| 24 Sep 2025 | Asteras Tripolis 1-2 Olympiakos Piraeus | Cup |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2-0 Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 |
| 9 Feb 2025 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 |
| 27 Oct 2024 | Asteras Tripolis 1-0 Olympiakos Piraeus | Super League 1 |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Asteras Tripolis 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus (full time).
When was Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Asteras Tripolis played Olympiakos Piraeus on Sun 30 Aug · 19:00 BST in the Super League Greece at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
More Super League Greece This Week
See all Super League Greece fixtures →With both teams posting a 1.35 expected‑goals figure and a BTTS probability just above 50%, the most logical read is that each side will likely score at least once.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
