Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

Conference League · Playoff round FT · Atalanta 0-0 Hapoel Tel Aviv New Balance Arena

Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv: Draw

Atalanta's 1.35 xG meets Hapoel Tel Aviv's 1.5 xG, yet the model assigns Hapoel a 40.9% win chance and a 24.9% draw chance, making a stalemate the most defensible read.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Draw Won

Lean · Close probabilities

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Lost

57.5% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost

54.2% model probability

Both sides enter the Conference League tie with contrasting recent fortunes – Atalanta's attacking output is modest, while Hapoel Tel Aviv have shown a mix of dominant wins and a recent loss.

Robbo's Verdict

Lean

Draw Won Slight lean Lean · Close probabilities

Back the game to finish level, as the model assigns the highest non‑win probability to a stalemate.

Show the maths

The model calculates Atalanta’s 1.35 xG against Hapoel’s 1.5 xG, giving Hapoel a marginal advantage that translates to a 40.9% win chance. However, the draw sits at 24.9%, well above a typical 15% baseline, meaning the expected goals gap is not large enough to force a result. The combined win probability (75.1%) leaves a sizable 24.9% slice for a draw, making it the most credible single outcome.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Lost 57.5% model probability

With Atalanta averaging 1.35 expected goals and Hapoel Tel Aviv averaging 1.5, the model gives a 57.5% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 42.5% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Atalanta 1.35, Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.5) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 57.5% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 42.5% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost 54.2% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.9 (Atalanta 1.35 + Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 54.2% chance against 45.8% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Atalanta 1.35 + Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.5 = 2.9 combined): 54.2% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 45.8% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Atalanta at 34.2%, the draw at 24.9%, and Hapoel Tel Aviv at 40.9% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 11.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Atalanta expected goals

1.35

Hapoel Tel Aviv expected goals

1.5

Model BTTS probability

57.5%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

11.7%

21-2

8.8%

30-1

8.7%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Atalanta set to host Hapoel Tel Aviv

3 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv?

Atalanta and Hapoel Tel Aviv drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Draw.

What was the final score of Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv?

Atalanta 0-0 Hapoel Tel Aviv (full time).

When was Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv?

Atalanta played Hapoel Tel Aviv on Thu 20 Aug · 18:00 BST in the Conference League at New Balance Arena.

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With the draw probability nearly a quarter and both sides’ xG figures close, the safest bet is to back the match ending level.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups