Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc: Over 2.5 goals
Atletico-MG's 1.8 expected goals meet Chapecoense's 0.8, nudging the match just over the 2.5‑goal line. The model’s 48.1% over probability signals a marginal edge for more than two goals.
Both sides arrive with contrasting recent form: Atletico-MG have been solid at home, while Chapecoense have shown resilience on the road. The fixture pits a high‑scoring host against a side that concedes heavily away.
Bez's Verdict
The combined expected goals of 2.6 translate into a 48.1% chance of more than two goals, giving a slight statistical edge to the over.
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With Atletico-MG averaging 1.8 expected goals and Chapecoense-sc averaging 0.8, the model gives a 54.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.6 (Atletico-MG 1.8 + Chapecoense-sc 0.8) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 51.9% chance against 48.1% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Atletico-MG at 61.1%, the draw at 22.6%, and Chapecoense-sc at 16.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 13.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG’s last five league results (W‑D‑W‑L‑W) include a 3‑0 home win over Gremio and a 2‑1 home victory against Vitoria, showing they can find the net against strong opposition. Those wins, combined with a recent 3‑1 home triumph over Fluminense, indicate a goal‑rich home side, reinforcing the over 2.5 pick.
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense’s recent form (D‑W‑L‑W‑L) features a 1‑0 home win over Sao Paulo and a 2‑1 away win at Corinthians, yet they also suffered a 1‑3 loss at Gremio and a 1‑2 home defeat to Internacional, underscoring a leaky defence that contributes to higher scoring games.
Head-to-Head
The head‑to‑head record favours Atletico-MG, highlighted by a 4‑0 victory in April 2026 and a 2‑1 win in July 2019, suggesting the host will likely dominate and add to the goal tally.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Apr 2026 | Chapecoense-sc 0-4 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| 6 Oct 2021 | Chapecoense-sc 2-2 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| 21 Jun 2021 | Atletico-MG 1-1 Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
| 30 Oct 2019 | Atletico-MG 0-2 Chapecoense-SC | Serie A |
| 14 Jul 2019 | Chapecoense-SC 1-2 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Atletico-MG: T. Borbas (Muscle Injury), L. Duarte (Hamstring Injury), Everson (Foot Injury), T. Perez (Injury)
Chapecoense-sc: Giovanni Augusto (Inactive), Heitor (Inactive), Max Alves (Injury), Rafael Carvalheira (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Atletico-MG 1-1 Chapecoense-sc (full time).
When was Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Atletico-MG played Chapecoense-sc on Sat 19 Sep · 20:00 BST in the Brasileirão at MRV Arena.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →When you add the two expected‑goal figures you get 2.6, just past the 2.5 threshold, and the model backs that with a near‑even split favouring the over.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
