Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia: Both teams to score - Yes
Atletico Paranaense average 1.8 expected goals at home while Bahia sit at 1.5 away. The model rates the match at 64.8% for both teams to find the net.
Both clubs come into the encounter on divergent runs – Atletico Paranaense have scraped a single win in their last five, whereas Bahia have collected four victories out of five. Their recent head‑to‑head shows Bahia winning two of the last five meetings, but three fixtures have produced goals on both sides.
Bez's Verdict
With a 64.8% BTTS probability and recent fixtures featuring multiple goals on both ends, the model strongly favours both sides finding the back of the net.
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With Atletico Paranaense averaging 1.8 expected goals and Bahia averaging 1.5, the model gives a 64.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 35.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.3 (Atletico Paranaense 1.8 + Bahia 1.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 64.0% chance against 36.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Atletico Paranaense at 44.9%, the draw at 22.8%, and Bahia at 32.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 10.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense’s recent five results include a 1-1 draw with RB Bragantino at home, a 3-2 win away at Botafogo, a 3-3 home draw with Fluminense, a 1-3 loss away to Cruzeiro and a 3-3 draw away at Coritiba. Four of those five games featured both sides scoring, indicating a pattern that supports a BTTS outcome.
Bahia
Bahia have recorded a 3-3 away draw with Chapecoense, a 2-0 away win over Vitoria, a 3-2 home win versus Internacional, a 3-2 away win against RB Bragantino and a 2-1 home win over Remo. Every match beyond the opening draw saw Bahia score, and three of the five fixtures produced goals for both teams, bolstering the BTTS case.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Bahia won 3-0 on 1 April 2026 and drew 1-1 on 24 Nov 2024, while Atletico Paranaense won 2-0 on 16 Jul 2023 and drew 1-1 on 12 Nov 2023; three of those five games ended with both sides scoring, reinforcing the BTTS trend.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Apr 2026 | Bahia 3-0 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Bahia 1-1 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| 10 Jul 2024 | Atletico Paranaense 1-3 Bahia | Serie A |
| 12 Nov 2023 | Bahia 1-1 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| 16 Jul 2023 | Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Bahia | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Atletico Paranaense: Claudinho (Muscle Injury), Leo Derik (Thigh Injury), G. Benavidez (Yellow Cards), L. Esquivel (Ankle Injury)
Bahia: Erick (Yellow Cards), Leo Vieira (Knee Injury), M. Sanabria (Inactive), Everaldo (Red Card)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
Atletico Paranaense won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Bahia (full time).
When was Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
Atletico Paranaense played Bahia on Sun 20 Sep · 23:30 BST in the Brasileirão at Arena da Baixada.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Given the high expected goal volume and recent matches where both teams have regularly hit the net, the most logical read is that both sides will score.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
