Atletico San Luis vs CF Pachuca: CF Pachuca to win
Atletico San Luis sit on a 1.0 xG home average while Pachuca bring 1.5 xG on the road. The model backs Pachuca at 48.8 % to take all three points.
Both sides enter the clash with contrasting recent form – San Luis have slipped to three defeats in five, whereas Pachuca have managed only a single win in the same span. The disparity in defensive records – 1.5 GA at home for San Luis versus a tidy 0.5 GA away for Pachuca – sets the tactical tone.
Jonesy's Verdict
Pachuca’s 1.5 xG on the road against San Luis’ 1.0 xG, combined with a 48.8 % win probability, makes them the logical choice.
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With Atletico San Luis averaging 1.0 expected goals and CF Pachuca averaging 1.5, the model gives a 50.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Atletico San Luis 1.0 + CF Pachuca 1.5) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Atletico San Luis at 25.2%, the draw at 26.0%, and CF Pachuca at 48.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Atletico San Luis
Atletico San Luis have lost three of their last five league games, including a 2‑3 home loss to Cruz Azul and a 0‑3 away defeat at Club America. The D‑D‑L stretch shows they struggle to convert chances, reinforcing why their 1.0 xG home average translates into a modest win chance here.
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca’s recent run reads W‑L‑L‑L‑L, highlighted by a 3‑0 home win over U.N.A.M. Pumas and a 1‑2 home loss to Querétaro. Despite scoring three in the Pumas game, the subsequent defeats indicate inconsistency, but the single win and low 0.5 away GA keep their win probability above 48 %.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Pachuca have won twice (2‑1 in 2025 and 2‑0 in 2024) while San Luis have secured one draw (1‑1 in 2026) and two defeats, suggesting a slight edge for Pachuca that aligns with the model’s win forecast.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | Atletico San Luis 1-1 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 27 Sep 2025 | CF Pachuca 2-1 Atletico San Luis | Liga MX |
| 21 Apr 2025 | Atletico San Luis 2-1 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 17 Jul 2024 | CF Pachuca 2-0 Atletico San Luis | Liga MX |
| 18 Mar 2024 | Atletico San Luis 2-1 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Atletico San Luis vs CF Pachuca?
Atletico San Luis and CF Pachuca drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was CF Pachuca to win.
What was the final score of Atletico San Luis vs CF Pachuca?
Atletico San Luis 1-1 CF Pachuca (full time).
When was Atletico San Luis vs CF Pachuca?
Atletico San Luis played CF Pachuca on Mon 24 Aug · 00:00 BST in the Liga MX at Estadio Libertad Financiera.
More Liga MX This Week
See all Liga MX fixtures →Given the clear edge in both expected goals (1.5 vs 1.0) and defensive solidity away, the model’s highest‑probability outcome is a Pachuca win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
