Austria Vienna vs Beitar Jerusalem: Austria Vienna to win
Austria Vienna's 3.0 expected‑goals rate dwarfs Beitar Jerusalem's 1.0, and the model assigns a 77.1% chance of a Vienna win in this Conference League tie.
Both sides enter the match fresh from contrasting recent runs – Vienna riding a three‑game winning streak, while Beitar have stumbled to two defeats in their last five.
Robbo's Verdict
The model’s 77.1% probability, driven by a 3.0 xG versus 1.0 xG differential and recent form, makes a Vienna victory the most likely outcome.
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With Austria Vienna averaging 3.0 expected goals and Beitar Jerusalem averaging 1.0, the model gives a 59.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 40.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.0 (Austria Vienna 3.0 + Beitar Jerusalem 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 75.8% chance against 24.2% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Austria Vienna at 77.1%, the draw at 13.1%, and Beitar Jerusalem at 9.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-0 at 8.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Austria Vienna
Vienna have won their last three league games, highlighted by a 2‑0 away victory over FK Liepaja and a 3‑1 home win against the same opponents. Those results show a consistent ability to score and keep clean sheets, which underpins the model’s expectation of multiple goals and a win in this tie.
Beitar Jerusalem
Beitar’s recent five-game run reads W‑L‑L, featuring a 1‑0 away win at AEK Larnaca but consecutive defeats, notably a 2‑3 home loss to AEK Larnaca and a 1‑2 home loss to Austria Vienna. The limited scoring and recent defensive lapses suggest they are unlikely to overturn Vienna’s advantage.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head encounter on 2026‑08‑06 ended 2‑1 to Austria Vienna, a result that aligns with the model’s strong probability of a Vienna win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem 1-2 Austria Vienna | UEFA Europa Conference League |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Austria Vienna vs Beitar Jerusalem?
Austria Vienna to win. The model’s 77.1% probability, driven by a 3.0 xG versus 1.0 xG differential and recent form, makes a Vienna victory the most likely outcome.
What does the model give Austria Vienna vs Beitar Jerusalem?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Austria Vienna a 77.1% chance, the draw 13.1%, and Beitar Jerusalem 9.4% to win.
When is Austria Vienna vs Beitar Jerusalem?
Austria Vienna play Beitar Jerusalem on Thu 13 Aug · 19:30 BST in the Conference League at Generali Arena.
More Conference League This Week
See all Conference League fixtures →With a clear expected‑goals advantage and recent performances favoring Vienna, the model’s win probability leans heavily toward the home side.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
