Auxerre vs Angers: Both teams to score - Yes
Auxerre and Angers enter their Ligue 1 clash with identical expected goals of 1.35, but the model sees a clear edge for both sides finding the net.
Both clubs have been inconsistent in their last five league outings – Auxerre with two wins and a loss, Angers with just one win amid four defeats – making the upcoming encounter a test of recent form and head‑to‑head history.
Robbo's Verdict
The model’s 54.9% BTTS probability, backed by Auxerre’s recent 2‑1 win and Angers’ three 1‑1 draws, makes a double‑scoring outcome the most probable outcome.
Show the maths
With Auxerre averaging 1.35 expected goals and Angers averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Auxerre 1.35 + Angers 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Auxerre at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Angers at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Auxerre
Auxerre’s last five league results read WWL, highlighted by a 2‑1 home win over Nice and a 2‑0 away victory at Lille. Those two wins demonstrate their ability to find the net, which underpins the expectation that they will score again against Angers.
Angers
Angers’ form DLLDD includes three 1‑1 draws (against Le Havre, Strasbourg and Brest) and a 1‑3 loss to Auxerre. Scoring in each draw shows they can break the dead‑lock, supporting the view that they will also hit the net in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Auxerre have won three times (including a 3‑1 win in May 2026) while Angers have secured two victories, with the most recent 1‑0 win for Auxerre in February 2024, indicating a relatively balanced recent record that still favours both sides scoring.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Auxerre 3-1 Angers | Ligue 1 |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Angers 2-0 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 19 Jan 2025 | Angers 2-0 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Auxerre 1-0 Angers | Ligue 1 |
| 10 Feb 2024 | Auxerre 1-0 Angers | Ligue 2 |
Team News (Pregame)
Auxerre: T. Bair (Suspended), A. Diousse (Knee Injury), S. Fofana (Groin Injury), R. Labeau Lascary (Loan agreement)
Angers: H. Belkebla (Thigh Injury), L. Mouton (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Auxerre vs Angers?
Angers won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Auxerre vs Angers?
Auxerre 1-3 Angers (full time).
When was Auxerre vs Angers?
Auxerre played Angers on Sat 29 Aug · 19:45 BST in the Ligue 1 at TBC.
More Ligue 1 This Week
See all Ligue 1 fixtures →Given the equal expected‑goals metric and the BTTS probability tipping above 50%, the logical read is that both sides will put a ball in the net.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
