Auxerre vs Nice: Nice to win
Nice's expected‑goals edge of 0.35 over Auxerre and a 44.8% win probability make the visitors the clear favorite, despite both sides’ defensive frailties.
Auxerre have stumbled through three straight defeats, while Nice have produced a mixed bag of draws and a single win in their last five league outings. Both clubs have been leaking goals – Auxerre concede three per game at home and Nice allow three per game on the road – setting up a clash where the better attacking side should prevail.
Robbo's Verdict
Nice’s higher expected‑goals figure and the model’s 44.8% win probability outweigh Auxerre’s home advantage, backing the visitors to secure all three points.
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With Auxerre averaging 1.0 expected goals and Nice averaging 1.35, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Auxerre 1.0 + Nice 1.35) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Auxerre at 27.7%, the draw at 27.5%, and Nice at 44.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Auxerre
Auxerre have lost their last three league games, including a 2‑5 defeat away at Lens and a 1‑3 loss at home to Angers. Those heavy defeats highlight a porous defence and a lack of scoring potency, which diminishes their chance of overturning the odds in this fixture.
Nice
Nice’s recent form reads D‑0‑0 at Saint‑Étienne (A), W‑4‑1 versus Saint‑Étienne (H), D‑0‑0 versus Lorient (H), L‑0‑3 at Paris FC (A) and D‑1‑1 versus Le Mans (H). The 4‑1 win shows they can explode offensively, while the goalless draws and a heavy loss underline inconsistency but still suggest they can outscore Auxerre’s modest attack.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, Nice have one win (3‑1), two draws (1‑1 and 0‑0) and two defeats (both 2‑1 to Auxerre). The mixed record gives Nice only a slight historical disadvantage, which aligns with the model’s modest win edge for the visitors.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Auxerre 2-1 Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Nice 3-1 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 14 Mar 2025 | Nice 1-1 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 18 Aug 2024 | Auxerre 2-1 Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 6 Jan 2024 | Nice 0-0 Auxerre | Coupe de France |
Team News (Pregame)
Auxerre: A. Diousse (Knee Injury), S. Fofana (Groin Injury), B. Okoh (Knee Injury), F. Oppegard (Illness)
Nice: L. Abergel (Knee Injury), M. Bombito (Leg Injury), M. Sanson (Surgery), A. Abdi (Surgery)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Auxerre vs Nice?
Auxerre won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Nice to win.
What was the final score of Auxerre vs Nice?
Auxerre 1-0 Nice (full time).
When was Auxerre vs Nice?
Auxerre played Nice on Sat 12 Sep · 19:45 BST in the Ligue 1 at TBC.
More Ligue 1 This Week
See all Ligue 1 fixtures →All the numbers point to Nice taking the three points, making a straight win the most logical selection.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
