Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29: Stade Brestois 29 Draw No Bet
Auxerre host a high‑scoring Brest side that boasts double the expected goals per match. The model favours Brest not losing, with a clear safety net against a draw.
Both teams arrive with contrasting recent form – Auxerre have struggled to find the net, while Brest have been steady on the road. This clash pits a defensively porous home side against an away outfit that scores twice per game on average.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns Brest a 60.5% win chance and a 21.2% draw chance, meaning there’s an 81.7% chance they avoid defeat.
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With Auxerre averaging 1.0 expected goals and Stade Brestois 29 averaging 2.0, the model gives a 54.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.0 (Auxerre 1.0 + Stade Brestois 29 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 57.7% chance against 42.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Auxerre at 18.3%, the draw at 21.2%, and Stade Brestois 29 at 60.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 10.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Auxerre
Auxerre’s last five league games read LLLW, highlighted by a 2‑5 loss at Lens and a 1‑3 defeat to Angers, showing defensive frailties. Their sole win, a 1‑0 home triumph over Nice, hints at occasional solidity, but the broader form suggests they are unlikely to stop Brest scoring.
Stade Brestois 29
Brest’s recent DDWL run includes two 2‑2 draws against Le Mans and Toulouse, followed by a 2‑1 away win at Le Havre and a narrow 0‑1 home loss to PSG. The draws and win demonstrate they can both score and hold on, supporting a non‑loss outcome.
Head-to-Head
Head‑to‑head is split – Auxerre won 3‑0 in March 2026, but Brest responded with 2‑0 victories in January 2026 and a 2‑2 draw in February 2025, indicating no clear dominance but favoring Brest’s recent form.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 2026 | Auxerre 3-0 Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
| 4 Jan 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 14 Feb 2025 | Stade Brestois 29 2-2 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 27 Sep 2024 | Auxerre 3-0 Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
| 14 May 2023 | Stade Brestois 29 1-0 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
Team News (Pregame)
Auxerre: A. Diousse (Knee Injury), S. Fofana (Groin Injury), B. Okoh (Knee Injury), M. Senaya (Injury)
Stade Brestois 29: M. Balde (Injury), R. Cagnon (Shoulder Injury), B. Chardonnet (Calf Injury), M. Diambou (Ankle Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Auxerre won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Stade Brestois 29 Draw No Bet.
What was the final score of Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Auxerre 2-1 Stade Brestois 29 (full time).
When was Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Auxerre played Stade Brestois 29 on Sun 20 Sep · 14:00 BST in the Ligue 1 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
More Ligue 1 This Week
See all Ligue 1 fixtures →Given the scoring gap and Brest’s higher probability of at least a draw, the safest bet is to back them not to lose.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
