AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag: ADO Den Haag to win
AZ and ADO both sit on a 1.35 xG rating, but the model gives each a 37.1% chance to win. The market undervalues ADO's win probability at just 15.4% implied.
Both sides arrive with identical expected‑goals marks, yet AZ have struggled to convert at home – their home goals‑for average sits at zero. ADO, meanwhile, have shown they can snatch points on the road, highlighted by a 2‑2 draw at AZ last season.
Lars's Verdict
Bet on ADO Den Haag to win – the model gives them 37.1% chance while the market price reflects only 15.4% implied probability.
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With AZ Alkmaar averaging 1.35 expected goals and ADO Den Haag averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (AZ Alkmaar 1.35 + ADO Den Haag 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has AZ Alkmaar at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and ADO Den Haag at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
AZ Alkmaar
AZ’s recent form is a pair of draws: a 1‑1 stalemate away at Feyenoord and a 3‑3 home thriller against NAC Breda. Both matches produced goals for and against, indicating AZ can score but also leak, which underlines the uncertainty around a clean win at home.
ADO Den Haag
ADO’s form list is unavailable, but their recent 2‑2 draw at AZ in October 2020 demonstrates they can compete on the road and secure points against strong opponents, reinforcing the plausibility of an upset.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, ADO have earned a draw (2‑2) and a win (1‑0) at AZ, while AZ’s biggest margin was a 4‑0 victory in March 2020, showing ADO can definitely overturn the odds.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2021 | AZ Alkmaar 2-1 ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie |
| 25 Oct 2020 | ADO Den Haag 2-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| 29 Aug 2020 | ADO Den Haag 1-0 AZ Alkmaar | Friendlies Clubs |
| 7 Mar 2020 | AZ Alkmaar 4-0 ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie |
| 22 Sep 2019 | ADO Den Haag 0-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
Team News (Pregame)
AZ Alkmaar: J. Clasie (Inactive), J. Hornkamp (Injury), D. Kasius (Inactive), A. Natali (Inactive)
ADO Den Haag: D. Barany (Inactive), C. Peupion (Knee Injury), P. Mulder (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag?
AZ Alkmaar won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was ADO Den Haag to win.
What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag?
AZ Alkmaar 2-0 ADO Den Haag (full time).
When was AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag?
AZ Alkmaar played ADO Den Haag on Sat 8 Aug · 20:00 BST in the Eredivisie at AFAS Stadion.
More Eredivisie This Week
See all Eredivisie fixtures →With the market dramatically under‑pricing ADO’s win chance, the value lies on the away side to pull off the upset.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
