Bahia vs Vasco da Gama: Vasco da Gama to win
Bahia's attack sits at 1.5 xG at home while Vasco manage only 1.1 xG away, yet the model gives Vasco a 27.8% chance to win against a market price of 23.8%. The edge lies in the under‑performing home side’s recent form and defensive frailties.
Both clubs arrive with contrasting recent runs: Bahia have slipped to three draws in their last five, while Vasco have endured three straight defeats. The fixture pits a side that has struggled to convert dominance into points against a visitors that, despite a poor run, have kept many games close.
Bez's Verdict
Back Vasco at 4.2 as the model assigns them a higher win probability than the market reflects.
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With Bahia averaging 1.5 expected goals and Vasco da Gama averaging 1.1, the model gives a 51.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 48.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.6 (Bahia 1.5 + Vasco da Gama 1.1) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 51.8% chance against 48.2% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Bahia at 46.4%, the draw at 25.8%, and Vasco da Gama at 27.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Bahia
Bahia’s last five league outings read WWDDD, beginning with a 2‑1 home win over Botafogo and a 2‑0 home victory against Chapecoense, followed by three draws (1‑1 away at Atlético‑MG, 1‑1 home versus Corinthians, and 0‑0 away at Fluminense). The shift from winning to drawing suggests their attack is stalling, which underpins the model’s lower win probability and supports a pick on the underdog.
Vasco da Gama
Vasco’s recent run is LLLD, starting with a 0‑3 home loss to RB Bragantino, a 0‑1 home defeat to Atlético‑MG, and a 0‑1 away loss to Vitória, before a 1‑1 home draw with Mirassol. Conceding few goals in the draw hints at defensive tightening, while the three successive defeats keep them hungry for a win, aligning with the model’s elevated win chance.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Bahia have won three (including a 1‑0 win on 2025‑11‑23) while Vasco have two wins, the most recent being a 0‑1 loss for Vasco on 2026‑02‑12, indicating a fairly even rivalry that does not contradict the model’s slight edge for Vasco.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Feb 2026 | Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Bahia | Serie A |
| 23 Nov 2025 | Bahia 1-0 Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
| 24 Sep 2025 | Vasco DA Gama 3-1 Bahia | Serie A |
| 29 Oct 2024 | Vasco DA Gama 3-2 Bahia | Serie A |
| 27 Jun 2024 | Bahia 2-1 Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Bahia: Caio Alexandre (Hamstring Injury), Erick (Inactive), Erick Pulga (Yellow Cards), Everton Ribeiro (Inactive)
Vasco da Gama: Mateus Carvalho (Knee Injury), N. Moreira (Yellow Cards), A. Saldivia (Calf Injury), A. Gomez (Yellow Cards)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Bahia vs Vasco da Gama?
Bahia and Vasco da Gama drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Vasco da Gama to win.
What was the final score of Bahia vs Vasco da Gama?
Bahia 0-0 Vasco da Gama (full time).
When was Bahia vs Vasco da Gama?
Bahia played Vasco da Gama on Sun 9 Aug · 20:00 BST in the Brasileirão at Arena Fonte Nova.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Given the model’s 27.8% win probability for Vasco versus the market’s 23.8%, the odds undervalue the away side’s chance to snap their losing streak, making a Vasco win a value proposition.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
