Bath City vs Weymouth preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

FA Cup · Round of 16 FT · Bath City 0-2 Weymouth TBC

Bath City vs Weymouth: Bath City to win

Bath City host Weymouth in the FA Cup with both sides boasting identical expected‑goal figures of 1.35, yet recent head‑to‑head results heavily favour the home side.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Bath City to win Lost

Lean · equal odds

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Lost

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost

50.6% model probability

The tie pits two non‑league clubs whose league form is unavailable, so the preview leans on statistical expectations and past meetings to gauge the likely outcome.

Robbo's Verdict

Lean

Bath City to win Lost Slight lean Lean · equal odds

The model gives Bath City a 37.1% chance of winning – identical to Weymouth but bolstered by a superior head‑to‑head record, making a home win the most credible outcome.

Show the maths

The model starts with both clubs at 1.35 expected goals, which yields identical win probabilities of 37.1% each and a 25.8% draw chance. The head‑to‑head factor is then applied, reflecting Bath City's three recent victories over Weymouth. This adjustment nudges the win probability for Bath City up to the same 37.1% figure, but the qualitative edge from the past results makes the home side the more likely winner in practical terms.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Lost 54.9% model probability

With Bath City averaging 1.35 expected goals and Weymouth averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Bath City 1.35, Weymouth 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Bath City 1.35 + Weymouth 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Bath City 1.35 + Weymouth 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Bath City at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Weymouth at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Bath City expected goals

1.35

Weymouth expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Head-to-Head

In the last five meetings, Bath City have won three (3‑0, 5‑1, 2‑1) and drawn two (1‑1, 1‑1), a pattern that strongly supports a home win in this fixture.

Date	Result	Competition
11 Feb 2025	Weymouth 0-3 Bath City	National League - South
22 Oct 2024	Bath City 1-1 Weymouth	National League - South
29 Mar 2024	Bath City 1-1 Weymouth	National League - South
7 Nov 2023	Weymouth 1-5 Bath City	National League - South
30 Sep 2023	Weymouth 1-2 Bath City	FA Cup

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Bath City unbeaten but craving quality

2 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Bath City vs Weymouth?

Weymouth won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Bath City to win.

What was the final score of Bath City vs Weymouth?

Bath City 0-2 Weymouth (full time).

When was Bath City vs Weymouth?

Bath City played Weymouth on Sat 5 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.

More FA Cup This Week

See all FA Cup fixtures →

That recent dominance, combined with the neutral expected‑goal spread, tips the scale toward a Bath City victory on the day.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups