Belgrano Cordoba vs Huracan: Belgrano Cordoba to win
Belgrano Cordoba's 1.4 xG edges Huracan's 0.9, and the home side’s recent defensive solidity gives them a clear edge. The model rates a home win at 48.6% versus only 24.2% for the visitors.
Both teams come into the clash on opposite trajectories – Belgrano Cordoba have rallied with two wins in their last five, while Huracan have slipped to just one win in the same span. The contrast in form sets up a classic test of Belgrano’s home resilience against Huracan’s struggle on the road.
Bez's Verdict
The model’s 48.6% win probability, backed by higher expected goals and a solid defensive record, makes a home victory the most likely outcome.
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With Belgrano Cordoba averaging 1.4 expected goals and Huracan averaging 0.9, the model gives a 55.3% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 44.7% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.3 (Belgrano Cordoba 1.4 + Huracan 0.9) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 59.6% chance against 40.4% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Belgrano Cordoba at 48.6%, the draw at 27.2%, and Huracan at 24.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 14.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Belgrano Cordoba
Belgrano Cordoba’s last five league results are D‑W‑W‑L‑D, highlighted by a 2‑0 win away at Banfield and another 2‑0 victory at home versus Independ. Rivadavia. Those back‑to‑back wins demonstrate a sharp attacking edge, which aligns with the model’s confidence in a home win.
Huracan
Huracan’s recent form reads D‑W‑L‑D‑D, with a 2‑0 away win over San Lorenzo followed by a 0‑2 loss at Sarmiento Junin. The solitary win and subsequent defeats underline a lack of consistency that supports the expectation of a home loss.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, Huracan have won twice (3‑1 in March 2026 and 1‑0 in August 2024) while Belgrano have claimed two victories (3‑0 in July 2025 and 2‑0 in April 2023), with one draw in January 2025. The mixed record leans toward Belgrano’s current form advantage for a home win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Mar 2026 | Huracan 3-1 Belgrano Cordoba | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 12 Jul 2025 | Huracan 0-3 Belgrano Cordoba | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Belgrano Cordoba 1-1 Huracan | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 18 Aug 2024 | Huracan 1-0 Belgrano Cordoba | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 12 Apr 2023 | Belgrano Cordoba 2-0 Huracan | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Belgrano Cordoba vs Huracan?
Belgrano Cordoba and Huracan drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Belgrano Cordoba to win.
What was the final score of Belgrano Cordoba vs Huracan?
Belgrano Cordoba 1-1 Huracan (full time).
When was Belgrano Cordoba vs Huracan?
Belgrano Cordoba played Huracan on Fri 4 Sep · 23:00 BST in the Argentine Primera División at Estadio Julio Cesar Villagra.
More Argentine Primera División This Week
See all Argentine Primera División fixtures →These numbers translate into the model’s strongest signal: a home win for Belgrano Cordoba. The statistical gap and recent form both point to Belgrano prevailing over the visitors.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
