Bohemians vs Derry City: Bohemians to win
Bohemians enter the match with a 1.3 xG edge over Derry City’s 0.9 xG, and the model rates a 45.8% chance of a home win. Derry’s recent form shows they can score, but defensive frailties keep them vulnerable.
Both sides come into the game after mixed runs – Bohemians have a win, a draw and a loss in their last three league outings, while Derry have collected a win, a loss, a draw and another win across four matches. The contrast in recent consistency sets the stage for a tightly contested encounter.
Hamish's Verdict
Back Bohemians to win as their 1.3 xG advantage and home defensive solidity translate into the model’s strongest win probability.
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With Bohemians averaging 1.3 expected goals and Derry City averaging 0.9, the model gives a 56.8% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 43.2% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.2 (Bohemians 1.3 + Derry City 0.9) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 62.3% chance against 37.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Bohemians at 45.8%, the draw at 28.4%, and Derry City at 25.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 14.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Bohemians
Bohemians’ recent three‑match run includes a 2‑0 away win over Drogheda United and a 1‑1 home draw with Galway United, before a 1‑3 away loss to Waterford. The win and draw show they can keep a clean sheet and pick up points, but the heavy loss underlines occasional defensive lapses – a factor that keeps the win probability modest but still ahead of Derry’s.
Derry City
Derry City’s four recent results feature a 2‑0 home win over Drogheda United and a 2‑0 home win over Sligo Rovers, flanked by a 2‑4 home defeat to Waterford and a 1‑1 away draw with St Patrick’s Athletic. The two clean‑sheet victories demonstrate scoring potency, yet the heavy loss and the away draw highlight inconsistency, supporting a lower win chance on the road.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Derry have won twice (4‑1 in June 2026 and 3‑4 in September 2025), Bohemians have won once (1‑0 in February 2026), and there have been two 1‑1 draws – a record that slightly favours Derry but does not overturn the home xG advantage for Bohemians.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Jun 2026 | Derry City 4-1 Bohemians | Premier Division |
| 1 May 2026 | Bohemians 1-1 Derry City | Premier Division |
| 20 Feb 2026 | Derry City 0-1 Bohemians | Premier Division |
| 12 Sep 2025 | Bohemians 3-4 Derry City | Premier Division |
| 25 Jul 2025 | Derry City 1-1 Bohemians | Premier Division |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Bohemians vs Derry City?
Bohemians won 5-3. Our pre-match pick was Bohemians to win.
What was the final score of Bohemians vs Derry City?
Bohemians 5-3 Derry City (full time).
When was Bohemians vs Derry City?
Bohemians played Derry City on Fri 21 Aug · 19:45 BST in the League of Ireland at Dalymount Park.
More League of Ireland This Week
See all League of Ireland fixtures →The combination of a higher home xG, a slightly better defensive record, and a model‑derived 45.8% win probability points to Bohemians edging the result.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
