Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 3 FT · Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07 Signal Iduna Park

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07: Borussia Dortmund to win

Dortmund’s 2.0 xG versus Paderborn’s 1.35 xG and a 52.5% win probability make the home side the clear favorite.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Borussia Dortmund to win Won

Strong · Clear advantage

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Lost

64.0% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

65.0% model probability

Both clubs come into the fixture with contrasting recent form – Dortmund riding a two‑game winning streak while Paderborn have mixed results, including a recent win and a loss.

Robbo's Verdict

Strong

Borussia Dortmund to win Won Solid lean Strong · Clear advantage

The model’s 52.5% win probability and Dortmund’s 2.0 xG versus Paderborn’s 1.35 xG support a straightforward home victory.

Show the maths

The model gives Dortmund a 52.5% chance of winning, driven by their higher expected‑goals figure of 2.0 compared with Paderborn’s 1.35. This xG gap translates into a higher probability of scoring more than the opponent, which the model reflects as a win probability above the 50% threshold. The under‑2.5 goal market is also skewed to over, but the win probability remains the most decisive figure for the pick.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Lost 64.0% model probability

With Borussia Dortmund averaging 2.0 expected goals and SC Paderborn 07 averaging 1.35, the model gives a 64.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 36.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Borussia Dortmund 2.0, SC Paderborn 07 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 64.0% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 36.0% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 65.0% model probability

Combined expected goals of 3.4 (Borussia Dortmund 2.0 + SC Paderborn 07 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 65.0% chance against 35.0% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Borussia Dortmund 2.0 + SC Paderborn 07 1.35 = 3.4 combined): 65.0% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 35.0% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Borussia Dortmund at 52.5%, the draw at 21.7%, and SC Paderborn 07 at 25.8% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Borussia Dortmund expected goals

2.0

SC Paderborn 07 expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

64.0%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

9.5%

22-1

9.5%

31-0

7.0%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

Borussia Dortmund

Dortmund’s recent form shows two straight wins – a 2‑0 home victory over Hamburger SV and a 3‑2 away win at Hoffenheim – indicating both scoring potency and resilience after conceding twice. Those results reinforce the model’s view that Dortmund can convert their 2.0 xG into a win here.

SC Paderborn 07

DWDL

Paderborn have recorded a win (2‑1 vs VfL Wolfsburg at home) and a loss (0‑1 to SC Freiburg at home) among their last five, with two goalless draws against Wolfsburg and Mainz. The inconsistency and lack of goals scored away (0.0 average) suggest they will struggle to match Dortmund’s firepower.

Head-to-Head

In the five recent meetings Dortmund have won three (including a 3‑2 win in 2021) and drawn twice, never losing – a head‑to‑head record that backs the expectation of a Dortmund win.

Date	Result	Competition
2 Feb 2021	Borussia Dortmund 3-2 SC Paderborn 07	DFB Pokal
28 Aug 2020	Borussia Dortmund 1-1 SC Paderborn 07	Friendlies Clubs
31 May 2020	SC Paderborn 07 1-6 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
22 Nov 2019	Borussia Dortmund 3-3 SC Paderborn 07	Bundesliga
28 Oct 2015	Borussia Dortmund 7-1 SC Paderborn 07	DFB Pokal

Team News (Pregame)

Borussia Dortmund: R. Bensebaini (Red Card), E. Can (Knee Injury), M. Kaba (Injury), G. Konstantelias (Knee Injury)

SC Paderborn 07: N. Awortwie-Grant (Knee Injury), L. Eickel (Back Injury), T. Gayret (Knee Injury), F. Gotze (Injury)

Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07?

Borussia Dortmund won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was Borussia Dortmund to win.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07?

Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07 (full time).

When was Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07?

Borussia Dortmund played SC Paderborn 07 on Sat 12 Sep · 14:30 BST in the Bundesliga at Signal Iduna Park.

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Combining the superior xG, the unbeaten recent run and the head‑to‑head dominance, the odds tilt heavily toward Dortmund securing the three points.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups