Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05: FSV Mainz 05 to win
Mainz head to an open goal-fest with a 5.0 xG away rating against a porous Gladbach defence that concedes four per game.
Both sides have struggled defensively, but Mainz's scoring rate is twice Gladbach's, setting up a high‑octane clash at the Borussia-Park.
Robbo's Verdict
With a 63.4% win probability and a defensive record that concedes four per game, Mainz are the clear favourites.
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With Borussia Mönchengladbach averaging 3.0 expected goals and FSV Mainz 05 averaging 5.0, the model gives a 87.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 12.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 8.0 (Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.0 + FSV Mainz 05 5.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 91.5% chance against 8.5% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Borussia Mönchengladbach at 18.1%, the draw at 11.3%, and FSV Mainz 05 at 63.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-4 at 3.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Gladbach have lost their last three league games, including a 0‑3 defeat at Leipzig (A) and a 0‑5 loss to Freiburg (A). The 3‑4 home loss to SV Elversberg also shows they concede heavily, underscoring why a win here looks unlikely.
FSV Mainz 05
Mainz’s recent five results read D‑W‑L, highlighted by a 5‑0 away win over Hamburg SV and a 1‑3 home loss to Eintracht Frankfurt. The dominant win demonstrates their attacking firepower, supporting a victory expectation.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Mainz have scored six goals and kept no clean sheets, with a 1‑3 win at Gladbach in March 2025, indicating a trend favouring Mainz scoring.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 5 Dec 2025 | FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga |
| 7 Mar 2025 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-3 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 25 Oct 2024 | FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2 Mar 2024 | FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Borussia Monchengladbach | Bundesliga |
Team News
Borussia Mönchengladbach: J. Castrop (Shoulder Injury), D. Hashioka (Neck Injury), Y. Konoplya (Knee Injury), N. Kuhn (Muscle Injury)
FSV Mainz 05: D. Kohr (Foot Injury), E. Martel (Knee Injury), P. Nebel (Muscle Injury), Silas (Broken shinbone)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 to win. With a 63.4% win probability and a defensive record that concedes four per game, Mainz are the clear favourites.
What does the model give Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 18.1% chance, the draw 11.3%, and FSV Mainz 05 63.4% to win.
When is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Borussia Mönchengladbach play FSV Mainz 05 on Sat 19 Sep · 14:30 BST in the Bundesliga at Borussia-Park.
Are there any injury concerns for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Borussia Mönchengladbach: J. Castrop (Shoulder Injury), D. Hashioka (Neck Injury), Y. Konoplya (Knee Injury), N. Kuhn (Muscle Injury). FSV Mainz 05: D. Kohr (Foot Injury), E. Martel (Knee Injury), P. Nebel (Muscle Injury), Silas (Broken shinbone). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Bundesliga This Week
See all Bundesliga fixtures →The statistical edge and recent performances point to Mainz capitalising on Gladbach’s leaky backline.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
