Botafogo vs Palmeiras: Both teams to score - Yes
Botafogo host Palmeiras in a clash where both sides average 1.8 expected goals, and the model rates a 69.7% chance of both teams finding the net.
The Rio de Janeiro outfit have stumbled to three defeats in their last five, while the São Paulo giants have mixed results but still boast a solid away defensive record. Both clubs sit at the same expected‑goals mark, meaning the matchup is primed for open play.
Bez's Verdict
Both sides’ expected‑goals parity and recent goal‑rich outings point to a high likelihood of each side scoring.
Show the maths
With Botafogo averaging 1.8 expected goals and Palmeiras averaging 1.8, the model gives a 69.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 30.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 3.6 (Botafogo 1.8 + Palmeiras 1.8) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 69.7% chance against 30.3% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Botafogo at 39.0%, the draw at 21.9%, and Palmeiras at 39.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 8.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Botafogo
Botafogo’s last five league results read WDLLL, with a 2‑3 home loss to Atletico Paranaense and a 0‑3 away defeat to Flamengo illustrating defensive frailties that often leave them exposed. Their solitary win, a 1‑0 away victory over Cruzeiro, shows they can keep a clean sheet, but the recent conceding trend suggests they will be vulnerable to Palmeiras’ attack, supporting a BTTS outcome.
Palmeiras
Palmeiras’ form of WDLWD includes a 4‑0 away thrashing of Vitoria and a 4‑1 home win over Vasco da Gama, confirming a habit of scoring multiple goals. Even in the 0‑0 home draw with Internacional and the 1‑1 away draw with Mirassol, they still found the net, indicating a consistent goal threat that aligns with the BTTS pick.
Head-to-Head
In the most recent five meetings, Palmeiras have won three, Botafogo one, and one draw, with scores like 2‑1 (2026) and 1‑3 (2024) showing both sides have scored, reinforcing the BTTS trend.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar 2026 | Palmeiras 2-1 Botafogo | Serie A |
| 17 Aug 2025 | Botafogo 0-1 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 28 Jun 2025 | Palmeiras 1-0 Botafogo | FIFA Club World Cup |
| 30 Mar 2025 | Palmeiras 0-0 Botafogo | Serie A |
| 27 Nov 2024 | Palmeiras 1-3 Botafogo | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Botafogo: J. Barrera (Injury), Kaio Pantaleao (Knee Injury), Paulinho (Injury), Arthur Cabral (Red Card)
Palmeiras: Allan Elias (Transfer negotiations), Jefte (Knee Injury), Paulinho (Muscle Injury), J. Piquerez (Foot Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
Botafogo and Palmeiras drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
Botafogo 0-0 Palmeiras (full time).
When was Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
Botafogo played Palmeiras on Sun 6 Sep · 22:30 BST in the Brasileirão at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →With both teams averaging 1.8 xG and the defensive contrast evident, the model’s 69.7% BTTS probability stands out as the clearest edge.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
