Bradford (Park Avenue) vs Lancaster City: Both teams to score - No
Bradford (Park Avenue) host Lancaster City in the FA Cup, but Lancaster's superior scoring rate and the model's 64% BTTS likelihood suggest a clean sheet is unlikely.
Both clubs arrive from contrasting league runs – Bradford have just secured a 2-1 away win over Curzon Ashton, while Lancaster sit unbeaten with a 1-1 home draw and a 2-0 away victory over Tadcaster Albion. The cup tie pits a modest goal threat against a side that averages two goals per away game.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns only a 36% chance to both sides staying blank, making a goalless or single‑team scoreline the less likely scenario.
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With Bradford (Park Avenue) averaging 1.35 expected goals and Lancaster City averaging 2.0, the model gives a 64.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 36.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (Bradford (Park Avenue) 1.35 + Lancaster City 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 65.0% chance against 35.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Bradford (Park Avenue) at 25.8%, the draw at 21.7%, and Lancaster City at 52.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Bradford (Park Avenue)
Bradford’s recent form includes a 2-1 away win over Curzon Ashton, showing they can score but struggled to keep a clean sheet. Their previous five‑match run ends with a solitary win, indicating limited attacking consistency, which underpins the low chance of them failing to score against Lancaster’s potent attack.
Lancaster City
Lancaster’s last five league games feature a 1-1 home draw against Tadcaster Albion and a 2-0 away win over the same side, demonstrating both resilience and scoring ability on the road. This recent away dominance suggests they are likely to find the net against Bradford’s porous defence.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head on 27 Jan 2024 ended 3-2 to Lancaster, and a November draw (2-2) also saw both sides score, reinforcing the expectation that both teams will hit the net this meeting.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Jan 2024 | Bradford (Park Avenue) 2-3 Lancaster City | Non League Premier - Northern |
| 25 Nov 2023 | Lancaster City 2-2 Bradford (Park Avenue) | Non League Premier - Northern |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Bradford (Park Avenue) vs Lancaster City?
Bradford (Park Avenue) won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - No.
What was the final score of Bradford (Park Avenue) vs Lancaster City?
Bradford (Park Avenue) 1-0 Lancaster City (full time).
When was Bradford (Park Avenue) vs Lancaster City?
Bradford (Park Avenue) played Lancaster City on Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →With both teams combining for a high xG total and Lancaster’s away form suggesting they will breach Bradford’s defence, the likelihood of both sides finding the net is strong.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
