Brondby vs Randers FC: Brondby to win
Brondby enter the clash with a 2.3 expected‑goals edge and a 58.7% win probability, while Randers sit at 1.35 xG and a 21.7% chance of victory.
Both sides arrive in decent form, but Brondby’s recent run of four wins in five games and superior home scoring rate give them a clear statistical advantage heading into the Superliga showdown.
Lars's Verdict
With a 58.7% model win probability and a 2.3 vs 1.35 expected‑goals split, Brondby is the statistically favored side.
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With Brondby averaging 2.3 expected goals and Randers FC averaging 1.35, the model gives a 66.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 33.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.6 (Brondby 2.3 + Randers FC 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 70.5% chance against 29.5% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Brondby at 58.7%, the draw at 19.6%, and Randers FC at 21.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 9.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Brondby
Brondby have won four of their last five league games, highlighted by a 3‑2 home victory over Sonderjyske and a 3‑1 home win versus Silkeborg. Their lone loss came away at FC Nordsjaelland (1‑3). This recent potency, especially at home, backs the expectation of a win in this fixture.
Randers FC
Randers’ five‑game stretch reads L‑W‑L‑L‑W, with a recent 2‑1 home win over Aarhus and a 2‑0 home triumph against Lyngby. The intervening defeats, including a 0‑4 loss to FC Copenhagen, show inconsistency that undercuts their win odds here.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Brondby have won twice (2‑0 in 2025 and 4‑3 in 2025) and drawn twice (both 0‑0), while Randers have one win (4‑2 in 2025). The head‑to‑head record therefore tilts toward Brondby, supporting the win pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | Brondby 0-0 Randers FC | Superliga |
| 17 Aug 2025 | Randers FC 0-2 Brondby | Superliga |
| 25 Apr 2025 | Randers FC 0-0 Brondby | Superliga |
| 21 Apr 2025 | Brondby 4-3 Randers FC | Superliga |
| 10 Mar 2025 | Randers FC 4-2 Brondby | Superliga |
Team News (Pregame)
Brondby: J. Ambaek (Injury), M. Jensen (Inactive), F. Alves (Injury), M. Divkovic (Injury)
Randers FC: W. Caddy (Injury), F. Lauenborg (Inactive), L. Lissens (Injury), B. Orn (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Brondby vs Randers FC?
Randers FC won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was Brondby to win.
What was the final score of Brondby vs Randers FC?
Brondby 0-3 Randers FC (full time).
When was Brondby vs Randers FC?
Brondby played Randers FC on Sun 6 Sep · 17:00 BST in the Danish Superliga at TBC.
More Danish Superliga This Week
See all Danish Superliga fixtures →The numbers point to a Brondby win, reinforced by both the expected‑goals differential and recent form trends.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
