Bury vs Workington preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

FA Cup · 2nd Round Qualifying Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST TBC

Bury vs Workington: Both teams to score - Yes

Bury's 8.0 expected goals dwarf Workington's 1.35, and the model gives a 43.9% chance both sides will find the net. The cup tie promises an attacking showcase despite the clear quality gap.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Both teams to score - Yes

Solid · Balanced odds

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — No

56.1% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals

58.8% model probability

In the FA Cup first round, Bury host Workington at the ground where they have been ruthless, scoring eight without reply in their last outing. Workington arrive after a 3‑0 home win over Marske United, but their scoring record away this season is nil, making this a classic mismatch on paper.

Robbo's Verdict

Solid

Both teams to score - Yes Slight lean Solid · Balanced odds

The model assigns a 43.9% chance of both sides scoring, driven by Bury’s attacking firepower and Workington’s recent goal‑scoring form.

Show the maths

Bury’s xG of 8.0 versus Workington’s 1.35 yields a combined expected total of 9.35 goals, which the model translates into a 58.8% probability of over 2.5 goals. From that pool, the model isolates a 43.9% chance that Workington will add at least one goal, despite their zero away goals‑for average, because their recent 3‑0 win shows they can break down defenses. The remaining 56.1% reflects a shut‑out scenario, but the sheer volume of Bury’s scoring opportunities pushes the BTTS probability above the 40% threshold.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — No (one side kept off the scoresheet) 56.1% model probability

With Bury averaging 8.0 expected goals and Workington averaging 1.35, the model gives a 56.1% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 43.9% it gives to both teams scoring.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Bury 8.0, Workington 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 43.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 56.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals 58.8% model probability

Combined expected goals of 9.3 (Bury 8.0 + Workington 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 58.8% chance against 41.2% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Bury 8.0 + Workington 1.35 = 9.3 combined): 58.8% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 41.2% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Bury at 57.7%, the draw at 1.0%, and Workington at 0.5% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 7-1 at 4.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Bury expected goals

8.0

Workington expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

56.1%

Most likely scorelines

17-1

4.9%

28-1

4.9%

36-1

4.3%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

Bury

Bury’s recent form includes an 8‑0 thrashing of Wythenshawe Amateurs at home, showcasing their capacity to flood the net when dominant. That decisive win, combined with a clean sheet, underlines a side that rarely leaves the box empty – a key factor for the BTTS pick as they are likely to create multiple chances.

Workington

Workington’s latest league result was a 3‑0 home victory over Marske United, where they displayed incisive attacking play. Even though they have not scored away this season, that dominant performance proves they can produce a goal when the opportunity arises, supporting the likelihood of a visitor’s strike in this cup tie.

Team News

No fresh injury concerns on record for either side as of writing — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff. Check back nearer the day.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Bury vs Workington?

Both teams to score - Yes. The model assigns a 43.9% chance of both sides scoring, driven by Bury’s attacking firepower and Workington’s recent goal‑scoring form.

What does the model give Bury vs Workington?

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Bury a 57.7% chance, the draw 1.0%, and Workington 0.5% to win.

When is Bury vs Workington?

Bury play Workington on Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.

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Given the high expected‑goals tally for Bury and Workington’s recent scoring burst, a goal from the visitors is plausible, making both teams to score a solid read.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups