Bury vs Wythenshawe Amateurs preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

FA Cup · Round of 16 FT · Bury 8-0 Wythenshawe Amateurs TBC

Bury vs Wythenshawe Amateurs: Both teams to score - Yes

Bury host Wythenshawe Amateurs in the FA Cup with both sides posting identical expected goals of 1.35, and the model rates a 54.9% chance both will find the net.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Both teams to score - Yes Lost

Solid · BTTS edge

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Lost

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

50.6% model probability

The cup tie sees Bury and Wythenshawe Amateurs meet after the amateurs have recorded a 3‑0 win away at Liversedge and a 2‑0 home victory over Vauxhall Motors, while Bury's recent league form is not provided.

Robbo's Verdict

Solid

Both teams to score - Yes Lost Solid lean Solid · BTTS edge

The model assigns a 54.9% chance that both sides will score, a clear edge over the 45.1% chance of a clean‑sheet outcome.

Show the maths

The model starts from each side’s expected goals of 1.35, translating into a roughly 45% chance of either side failing to score. Combining the two independent scoring probabilities yields a BTTS likelihood of about 55%, which the model reports as 54.9%. This probability exceeds the alternative no‑goal scenario (45.1%), making the BTTS market the clearest positive read.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Lost 54.9% model probability

With Bury averaging 1.35 expected goals and Wythenshawe Amateurs averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Bury 1.35, Wythenshawe Amateurs 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Bury 1.35 + Wythenshawe Amateurs 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Bury 1.35 + Wythenshawe Amateurs 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Bury at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Wythenshawe Amateurs at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Bury expected goals

1.35

Wythenshawe Amateurs expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Bury vs Wythenshawe Amateurs?

Bury won 8-0. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.

What was the final score of Bury vs Wythenshawe Amateurs?

Bury 8-0 Wythenshawe Amateurs (full time).

When was Bury vs Wythenshawe Amateurs?

Bury played Wythenshawe Amateurs on Sat 5 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.

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Given the balanced expected goals and the amateurs’ ability to score in two of their last three matches, the model’s BTTS probability of 54.9% stands out as the most decisive statistic.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups